Calculations off previous sales?

Calculations off previous sales?

Real Estate Investor · Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2009 · 130 posts · 4 votes

How heavily do you weigh previous sale prices when looking at a property in its current market? I guess you would need to look at the context of the sale and even then there may have been other things happening that you weren't aware of. So is it best to just ignore it and just look at comps?

I am looking at a banked own property for 57K, I'm looking at 2 comps that have sold for 50 and 54 as well as 3-4 for 90-110 in the same time frame. I guess the key would be to go look at these home to see their condition. Is it likely that other investors have scooped those properties up intending to resell them at the retail rate? More due diligence is required for sure.

In regards to my question, this home sold for 75K in 2004 and according to the graphical market information from the comp websites like cybehomes and eppraisal, the market was at the same place in this area in 2004 as it is now (which I thought was odd anyway). Eppraisel evaluates the property at 88K as being medium price, 75K on the low end (although I'm not sure how accurate that is either). There are currently homes priced at 119K but I doubt they will sell.

Thanks!

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  • Real Estate Investor · Mission Viejo, Cape Coral, CA · Member since 2008 · 218 posts · 24 votes
    17y

    In this declining market it is hard to justify a comp that is 4 months old. 2004 should only be looked at to see how much the neighborhood was priced at on the way to the peek. FSBO's or market listings set their own price. If there are REO close by, reality will set in with the new bank owned sale.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    Many markets have split in two. One for nicely fixed up move in ready properties and another for REOs that need work. Even in locations where there are a lot of REOs, there may (or may not) still be a market for move in ready properties at a higher price. I don't think the automated tools properly account for the selling cirumstances or the condition. You need to get out and learn the area. Those recent sales (< 3 months) are relevant, as are the current listings. I don't think a 2004 price is relevant.

  • Residential Lender · Elk Grove, CA · Member since 2009 · 32 posts · 0 votes
    17y

    I find that from a financing point of view lenders don't split homes out into 2 groups (reg homes vs REO homes). REO's are driving our Sacramento market as far as comps. Banks are using REO's as the comps even if they really are not comparable. It can be really frustrating and with the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct will make it even tougher now that the appraisal is ordered by the lender.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    To some extent, I disagree. Lenders base their value on an appraisal. The appraiser only uses a few comps and listings. If they choose REOs as comps for a pretty house, when there are actually other pretty houses comps, I would argue the appraiser is not doing their job properly.

    OTOH, if the only sales in an area are REOs or other distressed sales, then they really do set the market. One of my farm areas is really split. There are lots of foreclosures, but there are still pretty house sales. Other neighborhoods are almost all pretty house sales.

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