Could someone with more experience take a look at my numbers?

Could someone with more experience take a look at my numbers?

Member since 2011 · 41 posts · 11 votes

I was emailed this property tonight and it looked ok at first, but after doing this analysis there's a few things I'm not too sure about.

The original plan was to fix and flip this property, and according to my conservative estimates/the wholesalers rehab estimates I could profit around $11,000 on an $80,000 investment.

Comps:

If for some unforeseen reason I couldn't sell and had to hold the property for a rental I'd be getting a ~6.5% coc on my conservative estimates. Later, I could pull $60k of the $80k invested out and still have a ~7% return after the P&I with a $150 cashflow.  (If I could pull the entire $80k out, I'd be at a $0/mnth cash flow, but I'd have the equity from the refinance, and be out $0.)

As I mentioned, after the analysis I have a few concerns:

  • The property is a modular home, if I put $30k into rehabbing this would I be able to bring the value up to $100k or is it still seen as a "double-wide"?
  • If holding as a rental could I at least pull $60k back out of it which would leave me with $18k tied up making only ~6.5%. I would have $78k into it total, if it doesn't value for more than that, that's not a very good investment... 
  • The wholesaler mentioned the sump pump broke, which explains the puddle of water in the basement in the photos and the humidifier, but on zillow I found a note that stated "the homeowner had major problems with sewer and flooding" which obviously sounds a bit scary. 

Do you think this is workable, or too much risk for the low reward? What could I do to make it work? I appreciate the input.

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Flipper/Rehabber · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2015 · 204 posts · 89 votes
10y
Modular - Doublewide are the deal breakers for me. No matter how much you put into the asset they don't appreciate. It's like a car. Lenders will lend on them but most lenders have strict lending criteria which will minimize your buyer list. For your first deal, be patient and make sure it's the right one. To risky, I would stay away.
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  • Realtor · Keystone Heights, FL · Member since 2015 · 340 posts · 118 votes
    10y

    You're not going to get the same valuation from a manufactured home that you are from an brick and timber home. Are there any other manufactured homes in your area that you could use from COMPS?

  • Member since 2011 · 41 posts · 11 votes
    10y
  • Member since 2011 · 41 posts · 11 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Walter Key:

    You're not going to get the same valuation from a manufactured home that you are from an brick and timber home. Are there any other manufactured homes in your area that you could use from COMPS?

    There's one manufactured home that I found that sold in 2014 for $23k, it was a Fannie Mae property. It was 700sqft smaller, lower quality, and it's hard to say what the actual property looked like inside.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Garett H., the rehab costs kill this deal. I do not believe your Lender would let you pull out $60k afterwards, leave alone $80k - because THEY appraise conservatively! (Not that I'm experienced)...

    The point is, even before you get "stuck" with it, those already poor C-o-C figures would be even WORSE for your Buyer (because you are trying to get them to pay more).

    So, if you would dread getting stuck with it - DON'T proceed! Cheers...

  • Developer · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 905 votes
    10y
    Does not look like there is much meat in this deal even with the wholesalers optimistic numbers. In my market I would look for another deal.
  • Flipper/Rehabber · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2015 · 204 posts · 89 votes
    10y
    Modular - Doublewide are the deal breakers for me. No matter how much you put into the asset they don't appreciate. It's like a car. Lenders will lend on them but most lenders have strict lending criteria which will minimize your buyer list. For your first deal, be patient and make sure it's the right one. To risky, I would stay away.
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