Projected vs Actual - tell your story

[Steven B.]

Long time lurker... looking to get into RE investing, and running tons of numbers and am currently in the paralysis by analysis stage. I run numbers on some properties where things look good, but then it's a minimal amount net per month per door. Then others where I think not so much, then the number looks impressive. Before everyone jumps in with the standard answers, my spreadsheet includes vacancy costs, PM, in some cases water/sewer, and a hold back for maintenance/capex.

I wanted to start a thread and see where this went. For those that are in the game already, can you tell some of your projected vs actual numbers with real data? How much did you think you would net prior, and then how much did you actually? 

What surprises did you get, good or bad? After a year or two, did reality match your pre-purchase analysis?