Help Analyzing my 1st Deal

[Bill Fleming]

Staten Island, NY 4BR/2 1/2BA, 2 level SFH w/ an unfinished basement. Home is in great shape, needs a new roof, and some serious updating. Asking price is $389,000, I know they're bottom line is $368,000. Total updating/renovation costs are $30,000.

Currently, I live with my wife and 2 children in an apt. My plan is to move in, update over the next 3-5 years, doing the majority of the work myself, and sell when the market turns. In speaking to 2 separate realtors I know, I believe the house will sell for approx. $475,000-$500,000 in a decent market. I figure since I will live there and it's a good fit right now for my family anyway, I can wait as long as necessary to get between $475-500k. And if I fall in love with the home after doing all the work and living there, then I got a great home at a very decent price.

Most likely I will be putting $150k down (a 'loan' from a family member, just wants the $$ back + 20% of the profit from the sale) and carrying a $218k mortgage.

Hope this is enough info for everyone, I'll post replies if anyone has any questions. Thank you in advance for all your help!