[Chicago Analysis] Thoughts on my analysis?

[Dinardo Rodriguez]

Hey all,

After my research, I concluded that I want to purchase my first duplex/triplex in the Chicagoland area through an FHA Loan. I'm looking to begin the search for a property a year from now (December 2022/January 2023). I know a big part of real estate investment is being able to spot and analyze a deal and wanted to get feedback on my analysis of the following property.

For context, I'm new to real estate investing and looking to connect with other Chicago investors but mostly looking for feedback on how this deal look and how my numbers look (Am i underestimating/overestimating, etc.)

Property is a duplex (each 3 bed, 1 bath) in Little Village and listed for $259,900

Down payment (FHA Loan @ 3.5%): $9,096

Closing Costs + Repairs (4.5%) : $11,696

Monthly Income: $1,350 per unit (so $2,700/month)

Monthly Expenses: $2,431 (see below for details on expenses)

1. Assuming 30yr mortgage at 3.8%, mortgage*: $1,168/month*
2. Property taxes*: $280/month*
3. PMI (FHA Loan): $184/month
4. Insurance*: $150/month*
5. CapEx (5% of rents): $162/month
6. Vacancy (5% of rents): $135/month
7. Repairs (7% of monthly rents): $189/month
8. Utilities (only water): $120/month
9. Maintenance (shoveling snow, lawn care, etc): $135/month

Based on these numbers my conclusion is that this wouldn't be a meh deal since cashflow is not the best. However, with some tweakings (slight TLC to increase rents a bit or lowering purchasing price) it could be a good first deal. For the people that live in Chicago or are familiar with the area. How does this analysis look? Is there anything that is overestimated/underestimated? Am I thinking about these analysis correctly? Open to all feedback and again looking to connect with folks as I get started on this journey!

Many thanks,