Note investing short vs long term lending

Note investing short vs long term lending

Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
Following the reading of invest in debt, the author is a big proponent for borrowing long and lending short. I’d like to gather some thoughts from other savvy paper investors on this subject. When I create a note is it more advantageous to create a 10-15 year mortgage vs a 30 year mortgage? The 10 year mortgage would produce on a 50k investment selling for 90k at 10 percent 32% ROÍ and a total return of 161,468 over 10 years. This is an actual net of 111k or 11k/year. The 30 year mortgage given the same numebrs: 19% ROÍ for 30 years and a total return of $289,429. Net of $239k and per year return of: $9600 Now obviously 11 > 9.6 but in one scenario you are spending 3 times the amount of “work” or effort. As you would need 3 houses vs 1. I guess conventional thinking would go, if you are short on money and long on time, lending short is the way to go. Numbers change slightly if we were to calculate a pay off at 7 years (around average mortgage length). 10 year note: 7 years of mortgage collection: $113,400 Payoff amount: $17,995 Total: $131,300 30 year note: 7 years of mortgage collection: $67,533 Payoff amount: $83,472 Total: $151,000 ThoUGHTs Now we can add another variable: what if we were able to throw in the cash flow into an 8% index fund each month. How would the higher monthly cash flow change things with a 10 vs 39 year mortgage 10 YEAR MORTGAGE 16,200 added per year at an 8% compounded return for 7 years= $156,113 30 YEAR MORTGAGE $9647 ADDeD /YEAR 8% RETURN FoR 7 YEARS $92,900 So it appears shorter term loan, with returns reinvested will produce a greater return and a greater ROI with a few assumptions. Secondly it will also decrease risk as your money is returned more quickly to you and equity is built up sooner by the buyer decreasing their likiehood of foreclosure. Maybe someone can throw out some FV numbers to corroborate this.
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Jim HartmannPro Member
Multi-family Investor · Columbus, IN · Member since 2013 · 69 posts · 25 votes
7y

@Logan Turner, It would be interesting to also look at your rate of return if you were to sell your note using a 30 year amortization, but have a 10 year balloon or some other balloon.  This does not lock up your money for the entire 30 years, but allows lower payments for the borrower.  Of course, you could amortize at whatever terms you desire, but this helps a borrower to get back on their feet (if needed) and then re-finance at the 10 year mark (or before).  You want to make it so that the borrowers are able to re-finance. The sooner that they re-finance, the higher your return.

I agree also with @Steven Burke   You do have to re-invest it into another similar or higher yielding investment however.

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  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
    7y
    @Logan Turner I apologize for the format. The app on the ios is not allowing spaces
  • Hudson, WI · Member since 2018 · 10 posts · 6 votes
    7y

    Logan, thanks for the post. It's always neat to compare different scenarios and their outcomes. While I'm not an experienced note investor, I will give my $0.02:

    -I don't think a 10yr vs. a 30yr is 3x the work as you're comparing a single note. It might be 3x the work if you ended up buying/creating 3 different 10yr notes. However, that's not shown in your analysis

    -Looking at the payoff analysis is very interesting. I would be interested in knowing at what point in time do the 10yr and 30yr payoffs equal each other

    -Instead of reinvesting into an 8% index fund, how about reinvesting into more notes?

    -Another thing that I would consider (again, not experienced), would be the monthly payment of a 10/15yr note and assessing the financial condition of the borrower. There could be some added risk with the higher monthly payments vs. a 30 year.

    Thanks again for posting, I'll be following this discussion!

  • Jim HartmannPro Member
    Multi-family Investor · Columbus, IN · Member since 2013 · 69 posts · 25 votes
    7y

    @Logan Turner, It would be interesting to also look at your rate of return if you were to sell your note using a 30 year amortization, but have a 10 year balloon or some other balloon.  This does not lock up your money for the entire 30 years, but allows lower payments for the borrower.  Of course, you could amortize at whatever terms you desire, but this helps a borrower to get back on their feet (if needed) and then re-finance at the 10 year mark (or before).  You want to make it so that the borrowers are able to re-finance. The sooner that they re-finance, the higher your return.

    I agree also with @Steven Burke   You do have to re-invest it into another similar or higher yielding investment however.

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    7y
    @Logan Turner I follow the 10/10/10 method. 10 Percent down for 10 years at 10 percent That way if you ever look to sell it you will get highest value. Over 30 years with inflation your Yield (which is different than ROI) will continue to be reduced because $300 today will not buy you what it does in 30 years. Like I believe you mentioned - borrow long and lend short.
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  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Chris Seveney:
    @Logan Turner I follow the 10/10/10 method. 10 Percent down for 10 years at 10 percent

    That way if you ever look to sell it you will get highest value. Over 30 years with inflation your Yield (which is different than ROI) will continue to be reduced because $300 today will not buy you what it does in 30 years. Like I believe you mentioned - borrow long and lend short.

    Can give an example or expand on how you would calculate yield vs ROI?

    My thinking is the more money you have the better it is to focus on total dollar amount vs ROI. The less money you have the better it is to focus on more active churning/ velocity and higher ROI.

    The idea of throwing money into index funds is simply we can put any dollar amount into it to get a return. Notes and real estate require a certain saved up percent to get this high 20-30 percent return. 

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    7y

    Yield is also your Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Best way to describe yield is, if you have $1,000 now, in 6 years if you wanted to have $2,000 what is the yearly interest rate you would need to achieve to double your money?

    ROI is just your income divided by your investment. Over long term investing when receiving fixed income you always use IRR vs. ROI.

    As a sidenote, people who are saying they are getting 30 percent returns in real estate are investing in very high risk products. Check out the rule of 9. 

    The other thing to remember about funds vs. real estate is funds are very liquid, you can get your money in and out any second, with real estate it is an illiquid asset and if the real estate market tanks like the stock market has done the last two days, you can not get out at the snap of a finger. Notes are more liquid than physical real estate but you are still not considered very liquid.

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  • Specialist · Member since 2018 · 41 posts · 16 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Chris Seveney:

    Yield is also your Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Best way to describe yield is, if you have $1,000 now, in 6 years if you wanted to have $2,000 what is the yearly interest rate you would need to achieve to double your money?

    ROI is just your income divided by your investment. Over long term investing when receiving fixed income you always use IRR vs. ROI.

    As a sidenote, people who are saying they are getting 30 percent returns in real estate are investing in very high risk products. Check out the rule of 9. 

    The other thing to remember about funds vs. real estate is funds are very liquid, you can get your money in and out any second, with real estate it is an illiquid asset and if the real estate market tanks like the stock market has done the last two days, you can not get out at the snap of a finger. Notes are more liquid than physical real estate but you are still not considered very liquid.

    Chris, great feedback, and thank you very much.  I have two follow-up questions for you.  These may be stupid questions, so I’ll apologize up front and note that I’m new and still trying to learn from you guys.

    1) Regarding the 10/10/10 rule, you said that’s 10% down for 10 years at 10% annually.  Who’s putting the 10% down and why, and who’s getting the 10 years at 10% annually?

    2) What’s a good exmple of the 10/10/10 rule in practice?

  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
    7y
    @Gordon Freeman Selling a house on a note receivable. Ex. 100k sale price Downpayment 10k Finance 90k at 10%. Buyer pays 10 percent down.
  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
    7y
    @Chris Seveney @Chris Thanks Chris, I’m familiar with IRR but failed to think to apply it in these situations. I’m not too worried about liquidity when these notes are cash flowing well. As far as risk goes, I have disagree. For an investment I’m in agreement as that is just throwing money passively at something and risk reward are almost always inverse, however this falls under the business quadrant. Finding the deal, rehabbing (or not) and selling to qualified buyers with RMLO screening and setting up note collection services is not really investing. It can be very time consuming up front and once loaded and collections started then is very hands off. But I’m traditionally picking up houses for 40-60k rehabbing 20k and selling for 110-140k at 10%.
  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 283 posts · 179 votes
    7y
    This results in around a 22-30% ROI... but I now I need to determine IRR. 70k in, sold for 145k 15 years, 15k down at 10%. ROI: 31 % (each year for 30 years) IRR: 33.6 (assuming selling remaining note balance of 106k at 80 percent of UPB giving buyer a 15.1 percent return) This isn’t an average deal, It wouId be great One bUt we had two very similar to tbIs last year Reason risk is mitigated: house is valued around $120,000, rent is around PITI, home owner lives in property, replacement cost is at or above noTE amount, foreclosure laws of Texas. But
  • Palmdale, CA · Member since 2017 · 83 posts · 39 votes
    7y

    Check out the XIRR function in excel.  Thats most appropriate for scenarios like you just mentioned

    @Logan Turner. IRR assumes the cash flows are regular and always positive. XIRR gives you total flexibility and does the math correctly. In your example you have a huge outflow in the beginning -70k, then more outflows as you do the rehab, then eventually regular payments coming in. Simply make one column for all the dates, then the other column for all the actual cash flows in and out. Then reference them in the =XIRR(). This gives you your actual annualized yield.

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    7y

    @Derek Kirkwood

    Great post. One thing to note on XIRR is it assumes money is reinvested and provides the same rate of return as the asset. Typically this has very little effect but can have an effect over long periods of time. I wrote a macro that takes XIRR and MIRR (Which does not account) and created XMIRR which allows you to input the rate of return on the $ coming back in the door. Needless to say I have spent way too much time on my calculator and truth be told, its only a guide as whatever you buy will not perform per the calculator. Your calculator should be used as a guide to provide you with scenarios to understand pricing and potential returns.

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  • Palmdale, CA · Member since 2017 · 83 posts · 39 votes
    7y

    @Chris Seveney Agreed. I'm a big fan of MIRR since it allows you to specify reinvestment return rate and finance rate. Much more realistic than IRR/XIRR. I've always wondered, why does excel not have a function like XMIRR already??

    I don't think its unreasonable at all to spend the time making your own XMIRR, I think its great!  But maybe that means I have a problem too...

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