Flip in a Hot or Stable Market?

[Nghi Le]

I'm from Seattle, which might be considered the hottest market in the nation (in terms of flipping, development, and appreciation).  I know many others can relate in similar markets.  I'm a little concerned about the market right now; we're definitely at the peak, just not sure when it'll go down.  It has to eventually, right?  The more you go up, the further you have to go down.  But I don't want this thread to become a discussion on when the market will tank; there are plenty of other forums for that.

Anyway, this is why we're slowing down our flips.  Unpredictability introduces risk.  I feel like the market is bailing out at least half of the flippers in our market right now; it has definitely done so for some of our own.  A lot of people think they're killing it; sometimes success is the worst teacher.

I don't know what flipping life is like outside of Seattle, but I feel like I'm taking a "grass is greener on the other side" approach.  I hear people complain that they get no appreciation in some areas, especially the Mid-West.  I'm wondering if this is actually a better?  It certainly makes things more predictable.  Sure, you might have longer days on market as well, but as long as you know your area and know what to expect, you can plan for it in your flip (i.e. longer loan terms).  So to me, it "seems" like a better area to flip, simply in terms of predictability and a better coverage of the downside.  I'm also assuming that if you don't get much appreciation, then you don't get much depreciation either when the market tanks.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Would love to hear thoughts from the BP collective!

[Christian Wathne]

@Nghi Le; I think its overly simplistic to assume prices have to go down just because they've gone up. Here's a 40yr chart of national home values; we don't look to be too off from the norm. 

Given income growth and job growth in seattle (not caring about average income; strictly looking at the top 20% which I consider the 'home buyers'), along with lack of new construction coming online I think there is still room to grow. 

For reference, here's a graph showing inventory over the years...(notice 2017 at the very very bottom)