Deciding wether or not to pull the trigger

[Johnny Young]

So I have been studying the strategy of rehabbing for almost a year and half while we built credit scores and retired debt to increase our debt to income. I've been actively looking for houses and running analysis on them to try and find one that the numbers work. Few and far between in and around Nashville, at least for a beginner. Then, all of a sudden there it is. A house where the numbers work. A SFH 3 beds 2 baths, unfinished basement with two car garage on an acre and a half. The house is being sold from probate and it's in terrible shape. They are asking 10900, an offer of 90k was my goal. About 40-50k in repairs for an ARV of 200,000. So I see the house take my measurements and do a take off and talk to hard money lenders and find one that bites. The trouble I am having to make the decision is we aren't quite all the way there with the down payment. I have access to enough money to get there... but it will be leveraged. Borrowing money to borrow money on the hopes I can get a house and get it flipped with as few as possible issues makes me very nervous. To cover the payments until we sell will push our budgets to the max. Since I am doing 85% of the repairs myself to make the numbers work I won't have time to work an extra job to cover payments. I feel like it's a good deal but I also feel I should wait until we have more cash to work with. What do you guys think? Risk it with all the borrowed money and high payments and costs to borrow or wait till we have more cash on hand to lessen the struggle to make payments and risk only losing cash and not cash and credit?

[Luka Milicevic]

Assuming they take your offer of $90k....

Your repair estimate is 40-50k. If we use those numbers alone and you get your asking price of 200k minus closing costs of, at the very least 6%, you net $188,000.

This will give you a tentative profit of $48k.

Now.....

You have to factor in your holding costs which are expensive when you use hard money. You are looking at about 12-15% interest on your loan plus points.

What I have seen on repair estimates for first time homebuyers, and first time flippers is that they come in WAY low. I priced repairs line by line for the first ever house I purchased (primary), and actual cost was 3x higher than my budget. My first rental I priced in the repairs line by line and added a 20% buffer. Actual cost came in 2x higher. 

If you're budgeting 40-50k for your first flip my guess is it's going to come out at about 80k. 

I don't say this to scare you off at all but you have to factor in your holding costs and also factor in when you open those walls who knows what you are going to find on the other side.