Need Advice for Five Point 32204 Market

[Jasmine Hu]

Hello JAX board,

I feel JAX is the place to be in FL now. I am evaluating some options here and please kindly give me some inputs.

Reason to coming down:

I assume that the real estate appreciation if any would be cut half across the nation. Still coming to south would be the trend for next 20 years.

Another assumption is that there could be some kind of recessions coming. Half of the realtor boards near me are either offering short sale certificates or consider offering in the near future.

The 3rd assumptions that there is only so much value-add you can do to increase rents. Lots of tenants including higher paid white collars are having challenge they find roommate to rent. So I assume there would be less chance to increase rent compared to past 2-3 years. 

option 1: Better location or ideally best location CBD to fight against recession.

I am considering purchasing 4+ plex in 32204, possibly 32205 location. I feel five points Post St or below (south) are better location. walk to restaurant etc. Yet I have never purchase properties this old. My oldest is built in 1978. 

What is the cost to install central AC/heating for each unit since it is just a grand house and being converted into a few units. 

What is the cost to bring them according to current code? if required.

What is the cost to separate all utilites metering and bill back to tenant?

At last, most important, if economy goes south, will tenants here be able to pay the rent? I prefer people have at least a few K saving regardless the age. Can tenant handle 3% annual rent increase for next 5 years?

My strategy is to bring back property to top condition, get higher rent, then cash out refi, ideally at 5th year or so. Then continue holding for another 3 -5 years. (holding time 4-8 years). I only expect property to appreciate 2% annually.

Option 2: Buy into turn around or upcoming areas (working class, ideally  no section 8 or low % section), sacrifices tenant quality for appreciation ( say 5% ). 

I really enjoy SE side of JAX. I dont' know if this could be option 3 for me.

Your 2 cents are greatly appreciated. If you know any good Property management companies for those small apts, or good location commercial lenders, please kindly refer me. 

Thank you! Enjoy  your sunshine!

Jasmine