Does and should climate change factor into home buying and investing?

Does and should climate change factor into home buying and investing?

AJ WongBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 834 posts · 696 votes

When it comes to successful real estate investment, insight and foresight are essential components to a profitable portfolio. 

Insight brought me from LA to the Oregon Coast in 2018, partly fueled by a recognition that the world is rapidly changing and there are some environments that would actually benefit from it. (Imagine how valuable our cottage on the coast become during the Pandemic just 3 years later? We left Los Angeles to hike, boat, fish and escape the madness and have not looked back..)

Speak with anyone that has lived on the Oregon Coast for a few decades, and they will tell you the harsh winters, used to be a lot harsher. 

They'll probably mention how the summers are longer, milder and generally year-round the OR Coast is more hospitable. 

In fact, in this recent Yahoo evaluation, Curry county on the southern coast was ranked the #1 county in the entire Pacific Northwest, to benefit from the effects of climate change. 

Considering the pace of change, and the duration of most mortgages, is climate change something that factors into your investment criteria for yourself or clients? 

Having lived and worked in Real Estate in both Florida & California, there are the considerations of fire and water. Florida has one of the most dysfunctional insurance markets in the country (if not the worst) primarily subsidized by a State program as an insurer of last resort. What happens in the next few decades if insurance companies stop (Like State Farm in both States) issuing coverage for oceanfront or waterfront properties due to rising sea levels, higher tides and flooding? They are already raising premiums in 'high risk areas' rapidly, just last week State Farm was approved to raise California policy rates an average of 20%. 

Have you been to South Florida lately? The only beaches that are there, we recently put there, with dredged or trucked in sand. At high tides, some condos are literally splashed with waves. There is not beach, where there was once tens if not hundreds of feet of pristine (natural) sand. In just my time there from 1988-2015, there is a visual change, that eventually will become apparent to banks and insurance companies underwriting the RE assets. In short, if it's not insurable, it's not financeable. 

There are other considerations as well. Let's say, an STR at a ski in ski out. Less snow? Less revenue. Strong wildfire season? Lower tourist activity. Even on the coast, there are some town with limited water access for new development. Can you believe that? Water shortages on the Oregon Coast! The list goes on...

Is a changing and in some cases challenging environment something that factors into your real estate investment decisions or those of your clients? 

Mine certainly are, flood, tsunami and fire concerns at top of mind, Zillow did a survey last year that showed 4/5 buyers factored or considered climate risks. 

Top things to consider: 

- Flood factor

- Connectivity (electrical & internet) 

- Water Source, backup and systems

- Waste & Sewage

- Insulation

- Elevation 

- Trees & Fire 

Please refrain from political discourse :) 

Sesemi | STR Brokers powered by Fathom Realty 516 Reviews
2Reply
465 views

Most Popular Reply

Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
2y

The climate is changing, It always has and always will. This is not a horrible thing as some people agonize over, just is what it is.

In my lifetime I've seen the Global Cooling crisis come and go, the Global Warming crisis get renamed because it's obvious that we get warmer at times. So now Climate Change is the nom de plume because it is accurate - the climate does change - constantly....

So the game-on for we investors is to figure out where to buy/sell and when to do it. Simple as that. If you really think that the sea level is going to rise in area A, then don't buy there. I might take that chance and win out bigtime.....

It's kinda a fun game IMHO....

See this reply in the discussion

72 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Coupeville, WA · Member since 2016 · 93 posts · 73 votes
    2y

    I saw a lot of speculation about some topics so I spent 5 minutes finding some links for folks who are interested. Climate change is real no matter what one may think the causes are or are exasperated by. I live in the Olympic Rain shadow and after a flooding issues in 2022 that was very costly to address I am adding a french drain between us and our neighbor for some additional protection. Atmospheric rivers can be catastrophic and are just getting worse.

     https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/urban-heat-not-a-m...

     https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/#:~...

    https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

    https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/impacts-climate-ch...

    https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @AJ Wong:
    AJ, Do you mean that between the well and the house, you have installed a large storage tank? Do you run the water in the bottom and let it fill to come out and run to the house? I've been thinking about doing this on a couple of houses....
  • Member since 2020 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    2y

    @Account Closed The post was about climate, not the weather, they are two different things.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Chris Wilson:

    I saw a lot of speculation about some topics so I spent 5 minutes finding some links for folks who are interested. Climate change is real no matter what one may think the causes are or are exasperated by. I live in the Olympic Rain shadow and after a flooding issues in 2022 that was very costly to address I am adding a french drain between us and our neighbor for some additional protection. Atmospheric rivers can be catastrophic and are just getting worse.

     https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/urban-heat-not-a-m...

     https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/#:~...

    https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

    https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/impacts-climate-ch...

    https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...

    @Chris Wilson: Do not fret over fear mongering. Invest where you will be happy.

    It's all an attempt to control you.

    Here is NOAA, the satellite weather people 

    https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html#

    “In 2014, global sea level was 2.6 inches above the 1993 average the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Sea level continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.”

    Wow! They go back a whole 21 years! Amazing! Have you ever been to the ocean? On a good day, the waves are three feet high. Normally the waves are much, much higher. How do you ever measure a moving body of water to 1/8th of an inch per year. It’s ludicrous. Think about it. Oceans don't sit still and wind blows and there are storms and ships and other disturbances.

    That’s 2.6 inches in 21 years. I’ll take my chances. I can run to high ground faster than that.

    One just needs to visit Ephesus Turkey.. there you will find Roman ruins and a boat dock with bollards etc the sea is now 10 miles away from that boat dock.  So the sea has receded quite a bit in 2k years.. and when you cruise the coast of Turkey you will see Roman ruins 25 feet under the water.. As for sea rise on the pacific coast of US its not like east coast much of the coast line goes from beach right up to mountains not like east coast were things are so flat .. And sea level rise really impacts. Oregon and Washington coast are pretty lonely spots hard to get to with old fishing and logging towns. They are primarily popular with folks that live in each state and use them for weekends.  Southern Oregon coast is very remote and takes very long drives to get there or you need private aircraft. For the Golfer you have world class Bandon Dunes.. If one is looking for remote ocean front with pretty rough weather then those are the spots..

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Chris Wilson:

    I saw a lot of speculation about some topics so I spent 5 minutes finding some links for folks who are interested. Climate change is real no matter what one may think the causes are or are exasperated by. I live in the Olympic Rain shadow and after a flooding issues in 2022 that was very costly to address I am adding a french drain between us and our neighbor for some additional protection. Atmospheric rivers can be catastrophic and are just getting worse.

     https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/urban-heat-not-a-m...

     https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/#:~...

    https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

    https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/impacts-climate-ch...

    https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...

    We know that the climate is changing, no one can argue that point. The real debate is over: 1) How Much? and 2) What's causing it?

    You can see that a majority of the water usage is from agriculture, and the residential use is leveling off due to conservation.

    The OP is about should we factor this into our investing strategies? The general answer is no.....

  • Justin BrickmanBusiness Member
    Realtor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2021 · 502 posts · 274 votes
    2y

    If we have to start factoring in climate change too, the investors with analysis paralysis are gonna go insane lol

  • Member since 2024 · 3 posts · 1 vote
    2y

    First it was called Global warming. Now that we’re getting frigid tempatures it’s called Climate change… What’s next?

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Justin Brickman:

    If we have to start factoring in climate change too, the investors with analysis paralysis are gonna go insane lol


     LOL  full stop !!! you will have to add that to all the handy dandy cash flow calculators !!

  • Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    Quote from @Justin Brickman:

    If we have to start factoring in climate change too, the investors with analysis paralysis are gonna go insane lol


     LOL  full stop !!! you will have to add that to all the handy dandy cash flow calculators !!


     The irony lol. I'm already factoring i.e. fire insurance in the foothills lol.

  • Real Estate Broker · Modesto, CA · Member since 2023 · 192 posts · 77 votes
    2y

    Maybe it makes sense to buy in an area of potential disaster because the cost to build payout from insurance will be greater than the current value. In those areas there is typically better cashflow as well. 

    We have insurance. Buying or not buying based on natural disasters and climate change seems less predictable than buying for appreciation - which can be silly as well.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Nick Maugeri:

    Maybe it makes sense to buy in an area of potential disaster because the cost to build payout from insurance will be greater than the current value. In those areas there is typically better cashflow as well. 

    We have insurance. Buying or not buying based on natural disasters and climate change seems less predictable than buying for appreciation - which can be silly as well.


     Yup, the intersection of all these data points is interesting to navigate. That being said people still wanna live in Sonora, Jamestown, Copperopolis etc. Fire hardening is another value add play. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Modesto, CA · Member since 2023 · 192 posts · 77 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Alan F.:
    Quote from @Nick Maugeri:

    Maybe it makes sense to buy in an area of potential disaster because the cost to build payout from insurance will be greater than the current value. In those areas there is typically better cashflow as well. 

    We have insurance. Buying or not buying based on natural disasters and climate change seems less predictable than buying for appreciation - which can be silly as well.


     Yup, the intersection of all these data points is interesting to navigate. That being said people still wanna live in Sonora, Jamestown, Copperopolis etc. Fire hardening is another value add play. 


     Yes sir, interesting time where we are. Balancing legislation with investing and natural disasters is an interesting act

  • Coupeville, WA · Member since 2016 · 93 posts · 73 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Chris Wilson:

    I saw a lot of speculation about some topics so I spent 5 minutes finding some links for folks who are interested. Climate change is real no matter what one may think the causes are or are exasperated by. I live in the Olympic Rain shadow and after a flooding issues in 2022 that was very costly to address I am adding a french drain between us and our neighbor for some additional protection. Atmospheric rivers can be catastrophic and are just getting worse.

     https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/urban-heat-not-a-m...

     https://www.ppic.org/publication/water-use-in-california/#:~...

    https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts

    https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/impacts-climate-ch...

    https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...

    We know that the climate is changing, no one can argue that point. The real debate is over: 1) How Much? and 2) What's causing it?

    You can see that a majority of the water usage is from agriculture, and the residential use is leveling off due to conservation.

    The OP is about should we factor this into our investing strategies? The general answer is no.....

    Part of the equation is time frame of the hold. In my dreams we have a property we visit that the kids and grandkids can use for long after I am gone. In that scenario there are places I would not buy in now. 

    Yes the climate is changing. One way to think about it is to use current interest rates as an example. Historically they are not at all high, what has been disruptive is the speed of the change in rates. The estimates are that the climate is warming at a rate 10x or higher than the transition from the last ice age. Things that took thousands of years are happening in hundreds of years. It makes it tough for human, plant and animal life to adjust that quickly. 
  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Chris Wilson:

    Yes the climate is changing. One way to think about it is to use current interest rates as an example. Historically they are not at all high, what has been disruptive is the speed of the change in rates. The estimates are that the climate is warming at a rate 10x or higher than the transition from the last ice age. Things that took thousands of years are happening in hundreds of years. It makes it tough for human, plant and animal life to adjust that quickly. 
    I also base my choices on future hopes and expectations....

    I have learned to be very careful with 'estimates', 'studies', 'polls' and the like. They are typically bought and paid for by those who would benefit from their results....just sayin'....
  • Coupeville, WA · Member since 2016 · 93 posts · 73 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Chris Wilson:

    Yes the climate is changing. One way to think about it is to use current interest rates as an example. Historically they are not at all high, what has been disruptive is the speed of the change in rates. The estimates are that the climate is warming at a rate 10x or higher than the transition from the last ice age. Things that took thousands of years are happening in hundreds of years. It makes it tough for human, plant and animal life to adjust that quickly. 
    I also base my choices on future hopes and expectations....

    I have learned to be very careful with 'estimates', 'studies', 'polls' and the like. They are typically bought and paid for by those who would benefit from their results....just sayin'....

     In general I would agree with that. When it is actual readings from over time that one can measure then I place a bit more credence in the estimate. It's probably better than a rehab estimate that is given before the walls have been opened up to take a look.  :)

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Nick Maugeri:

    Maybe it makes sense to buy in an area of potential disaster because the cost to build payout from insurance will be greater than the current value. In those areas there is typically better cashflow as well. 

    We have insurance. Buying or not buying based on natural disasters and climate change seems less predictable than buying for appreciation - which can be silly as well.


    unless the insurance company files BK and does not pay..  ask the people in the fires in Paradise Ca up the valley from you about that 
  • Real Estate Broker · Modesto, CA · Member since 2023 · 192 posts · 77 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    Quote from @Nick Maugeri:

    Maybe it makes sense to buy in an area of potential disaster because the cost to build payout from insurance will be greater than the current value. In those areas there is typically better cashflow as well. 

    We have insurance. Buying or not buying based on natural disasters and climate change seems less predictable than buying for appreciation - which can be silly as well.


    unless the insurance company files BK and does not pay..  ask the people in the fires in Paradise Ca up the valley from you about that 

    So the fair plan was introduced to cover that, they still get paid/rebuilt with OPM via tax/government funding. 

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.