Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 1 vote
I work in commercial real estate and people/people who know experts are talking about a correction next year or soon. Aka a crash in the markets. Real estate market.. The market is at an all time high and besides obvious indicators as such... How do some of you experts know it is coming and why are you certain? Mind explaining where to research this topic on ones own. How can I start exploring on my own to predict a correction. Or know when it's actually going to happen.
I am no expert, but what I do not see in San Diego is how we get from the present extremely low inventory levels (especially on the coast and the lower priced $800k and below market) to an excess inventory level which I believe would have to be a precursor to any significant price drop. So I think it could be a while before we see any significant correction. We don't presently have the loose financing and overbuilding that led to the last downturn. What we do have is a fairly steady job market compared to other areas and abundant liquidity looking for yield.
I believe there are ways to tell when the market is going up and down and that someone out there in the world knows how to do this but that I don't know how to.
I am no expert, but what I do not see in San Diego is how we get from the present extremely low inventory levels (especially on the coast and the lower priced $800k and below market) to an excess inventory level which I believe would have to be a precursor to any significant price drop. So I think it could be a while before we see any significant correction. We don't presently have the loose financing and overbuilding that led to the last downturn. What we do have is a fairly steady job market compared to other areas and abundant liquidity looking for yield.
@Cee Jay Instead of looking for when "a crash in the markets" will happen, I suggest your time will be better spent just ... looking. See what you find, and draw your own conclusions.
Hi @Cee Jay I know there is gonna be a market regeneration, in san diego, but not next year I think we are healthy to keep driving prices up a little more this is just my opinion, since I was one of does monkeys that @Brian Lacey was talking about, or former investment analyst. so my job was t be paranoid.
The market is kind of leveling out right now but there's not necessarily a sign of a crash, there's still high demand and low supply especially here in san diego. If there is a correction it won't be nearly as bad as the 08 crash. But who knows for sure?