Investing: Is the current prices to high?

Investing: Is the current prices to high?

Trinity, FL · Member since 2016 · 209 posts · 57 votes

I would still classify myself as a newbie in the real estate investing world, i have 3 rentals currently, but they all came from my military days as personal owned homes that i kept and turned into rentals, i had 7 rentals at one point, but i sold off the non-performing properties as soon as i could break even on them. The last few months i have been looking into another property to buy as a rental, but i feel like the prices around me are just way overpriced to make a buck. Seems like every deal i come across when i run the numbers the property is barely breaking even if i purchase and turn into rental. 

Just curious what others think on this as of lately, seems like the prices are climbing at the rate of pre-2007 did.. 

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Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
8y

I'm not sure where Holiday is but here in Palm Beach County the prices are outrageous.

Properties that need full rehabs are asking market value or very close to it.

1% rents can only be found in the rougher parts of town where I don't want to be.

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  • Marco Island, FL · Member since 2018 · 7 posts · 2 votes
    8y

    Cam,

    thanks for the info and counsel. I am also looking at 5/7/10 year ARM's in order to improve COC as well as ROI. The best times to buy on Marco are July/August. Slow selling season with minimal buyers on the island.

    FRank

  • Investor · Lake Worth, FL · Member since 2015 · 107 posts · 54 votes
    8y

    I live in Palm Beach County and wouldn't think of investing anywhere in my immediate area. The only way to find deals is to get extremely creative in finding off-market deals which isn't for everyone. Instead, I concentrate on up and coming areas of Florida on the west coast and north Florida such as the Jacksonville. I am hoping to close on a duplex soon in the Ft Meyers area!

    DON'T be afraid to look outside your immediate area!

  • Investor · Arlington, VA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 491 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Cam Robert:

    'Too high' is subjective, but we can definitely say prices are rising and returns are compressing. Since ~2012 interest rates have hovered between 3.5-4.5%:

    This was extremely low by historical standards:

    At the same time, property prices were crushed from the financial crisis. The result was a golden age of opportunity if you had a little capital and decent credit. In the last year, rates have risen at least 1% (I'm now seeing 5-5.5% as the norm for investment properties - June 2018), and they will likely continue that ascent barring some major economic impact. Compounding this, unemployment is the lowest it has been since before the Great Recession, meaning people have money and are bidding up the prices of properties. The result is that we have both rising interest rates and rising home prices, which will ultimately compress returns. I ran some analysis on this, and for a property with a ~10.5% CoC return at 4% interest rates, that will drop to ~8.5% at 5% interest rates:

    If you compound that with increasing property prices by say 5%, then the CoC drops to 7% . The relationship is pretty consistent - increase rates by 1%, see a ~2% drop in CoC. Increase prices by ~5%, see a ~1.5% drop in CoC. Both at the same time will drag down CoC by ~3.5%.

    So yes, in the last year we've seen rates rise by ~1% across the board, and many markets are seeing home prices that are at least 5% higher than they were a year ago. The result is compressed returns for investors. The question is, what do you do about this? You can slow down or stop investing, which isn't a bad strategy in the short term if you don't see deals that make sense for you. You can search for new markets - which many people are doing. I believe this is why a lot of the secondary / tertiary markets are now picking up more. Or you can look for alternative ways to invest your money... unfortunately, the stock market isn't offering any bargains right now either. So the right choice is probably some version of move forward, but with caution. Hold to your standards and don't reach for returns by going outside your circle of competence. It's widely noted that we'll be in for a bumpy ride going into 2019/2020 as the Fed dials up interest rates, at the same time that the tax stimulus subsides. Only then will we find out who was swimming without any trunks on.

    Good luck!

     If I could up-vote this post more, I would.  Excellent summary of the current market and likely future environment.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2018 · 2 posts · 3 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Frank Tedesco:

    Cam,

    thanks for the info and counsel. I am also looking at 5/7/10 year ARM's in order to improve COC as well as ROI. The best times to buy on Marco are July/August. Slow selling season with minimal buyers on the island.

    FRank

    Nice - just be careful with those shorter term fixed rate loans. At the very least stagger the terms on those loans so everything doesn’t reset in the same year... this way you buy yourself a little time if future rates move against you.

  • Marco Island, FL · Member since 2018 · 7 posts · 2 votes
    8y

    thanks Cam!

    Will keep you all posted. I think I found a good 2br/2bath unit, furnished with a long canal/bay view in a 10 unit complex. Direct access to the gulf too. It needs some renovations but I have a friend in the business who will do the work at very reasonable costs. Based on my analysis using the calculator, with moderate assumptions,  I think this is a reasonably good long term investment. I also have a annual renter teed up in October!

    Frank

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