300,000 Foreclosures From harvey

[Corey Goldstein]

The devastation left behind by Hurricane Harvey could result in 300,000 new mortgage delinquencies, with 160,000 borrowers becoming 90 days or more past due, according to a new forecast from Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS).

This new forecast is based on a comparison to the 2005 damage left by Hurricane Katrina, when mortgage delinquencies in FEMA-designated disaster areas across Louisiana and Mississippi soared by 25 percentage points and peaked at over 34 percent.

The areas impacted by Harvey have twice as many mortgage properties as those impacted by Katrina—Black Knight estimated there are 1.18 million mortgaged properties in Hurricane Harvey-related FEMA disaster areas, with $179 billion in unpaid mortgage balances. However, Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske noted the federal government has some buffers in place to block a potential mortgage catastrophe.

“Thankfully, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration have all announced temporary moratoria on evictions and foreclosure sales in Harvey-related disaster areas,” Graboske said. “With these three organizations accounting for nearly 900,000 of mortgaged properties, the moratoria should help temper the negative effects. Forbearance plans will help as well, though interest on the mortgage will continue to accrue under any of these efforts.”Servicing.

What do you see to do?

Corey 

The Outback Real Estate Investment Network

[Mike Wood]

No way is what happened to Houston the same as what happened in Katrina.  Katrina caused massive infrastructure damage that prevented people returning to there homes for months (not days or weeks, but months).  I live in NOLA and wanted to get back to my house.  I did not have power on my street until April 2006, a full 7 months after the storm.  And this was typical of the area.  While I was determined to return, most did not have the ability or desire to wait.  

Another thing to consider is that NOLA had quite a few areas that were filled with low value housing.  Given the crazy costs of rebuilding after Katrina, lots of areas could not support the costs of rebuilding (i.e. if it cost $75/ft2 to rebuild, but pre-storm values were less than on a $/ft2 basis), alot of people did not want to be upside down in there house.

During Katrina, most banks gave borrows affected relief on paying their bills,  Most of mine gave me at least 6 months of no payments.