STR in a funky new mountain build- what should I look for?

[AJ Johnson]

I am Realtor near Boulder, Co. and am taking the plunge into investing myself. I basically want to buy a home in the mountains and have STR subsidize some/most of the mortgage. I came across this new community and it got me interested.

It is located in Granby, Co. just behind Rocky Mtn Park, with 3 lakes, a small town and 30' from Winter Park Ski Resort. It's a funky area as it has camping and RV sites, and cabins along with the homes. There are some pretty cool looking amenities that would attract a lot of people. Here's the layout: https://3dq1fq1lesjd1aw5045f5a6h-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/river-run-site-map.pdf . 

The home we are looking is 250K and can easily be made into a STR- here's the layout https://3dq1fq1lesjd1aw5045f5a6h-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/river-run-villa-lookout-lodge.pdf

I'm worried I'd be competing with the cabins renting for 130 to 150/night. Plus, this is a brand new community being built, so there is obvious risk in the unknown. 

Thinking I would put it at 150/night to be competitive. With putting 10% down that leaves me around 1100 for my mortgage (no idea on HOA, other fees yet). If I rent it 10 nights a month that puts me at $1500/month, which should cover the mortgage and fees. Is this reasonable to assume?