how to handle a tenant unwilling to fess up to damage he caused ?

[Alex Scotte]

There is some water damage to the drywall in my rental unit. At the same time, there is a termite infestation. Today, they did the termite work and verified that the damage on the drywall is water damage, not termite damage. When I looked at it closely, there is water stains in this area and the termite employees also noticed it. However, my tenant did not fess up to it when I showed it to him. I'm thinking about getting the exterior inspected to cross that off the list as a potential cause (ie, leaky roof or cracked stucco). However, every time I get an inspection HOA is charging me for it. I took pictures and they show the water stains.

My tenants have been easy going and good tenants up to this point (they pay their rent and no complaints). However, this is their mistake and should be responsible for it (they actually broke the lease by trying to spackle it). I am thinking I will send them an email with the pictures and let them know that if the inspection shows no exterior damage plus what the pictures show, then they will be responsible for cost of the inspection as well as the repairs. My concern is if they withhold rent. At the same time, if the housing market keeps going up next year, I will be selling at the end of their lease (in June). If they are unwilling to cover the costs, I could withhold it from their security deposit at that time.

Any advice? As I understand it, the COVID eviction moratorium does not apply because they have to show financial hardship. Is this correct?