Nashville Lifestyle Investor

Nashville Lifestyle Investor

Member since 2022 · 13 posts · 1 vote

My wife and I are very established in our careers with an eye on retirement in the next 5-7 years. We don't have the time to do any serious real estate investing, but did purchase a home in Franklin outside of Nashville in Sept '22. The timing was pretty good as this turned out to be a downward blip in the market but we locked at 5.25% before rates went crazy. Recent comps shows that $850K property is now worth roughly $950K.

We're interested in mid to long-term investing and not making a quick buck so equity growth is our focus as long as we can cash flow it adequately. So far, so good - as we've kept this property pretty fully leased out since acquiring.

We're looking at other options in the Nashville area, but are now focused on something with short-term rental potential so we can stay there on our multiple trips to Nash every year. Unfortunately, the airbnb market that was so strong 3-4 years ago has really softened, partly do to macro trends and partially due to increasing restrictions in the area. Supply has also swelled quite a bit over the last couple of years. So we did come across a condohotel option that's new. I know, I know. I've read the conventional wisdom. "It's not a great investment", "so many usage restrictions", "costly management fees", etc. However, there are a few unique things about this property.

Same old, same old

Yes, you are required to use their management co.
Operating costs are expensive - but they handle everything
Also, locked into their FF&E package (so they create a standard rental experience)
30% down payment
65/35 revenue split on top of operating costs
HOA is about $8K per year

What's a little different
New property - to open in a couple of years
"Discounted" price before ground breaking
A new-ish model in the Nashville area
Upper-upscale/luxury residences with traditional hotel attached to this property
In a location that can help merge Nashville's growing business center with it's historically strong tourism center. Will likely pull well from both visiting populations.
A ton of amenities - everything a high-end hotel would offer, includes a lot of business space which could pull in potential renters during week, while tourist crowd would dominate weekends
Great location in midtown Nashville
A developer with a great reputation
Not part of a hotel chain (which could be a negative when it comes to bookings)
No restrictions on owner usage
Developer will retain high ownership percentage to allow him to have significant HOA control to avoid it from getting out of control

It's an interesting model in an interesting market. I know this isn't a popular investment model, as there are clearly some downsides - high costs, financing, etc. My goal is to cash-flow it in the short-term and build equity. I feel like while this is a challenge in seasonal tourist area, it might be a stronger model in the Nashville market, especially without a lot of competition in this space.

I have some pro-forma numbers that I feel I've vetted to death. Since its a new property without similar properties nearby, the ADR and Occ % are an educated guess that I've drawn on some diligence from nearby hotel properties.

Their projections: $675 nt/ADR with 70% occupancy. $22K net profit annually.
My projections: $600 nt/ADR with 65% occupancy. $8K net profit annually.

High end hotels in the area with 1-br suites average in the $700-$750/nt range (or more). Overall occupancy in the county was roughly 65% last year, 74% downtown. As this is downtown adjacent, it's likely closer to that number. However, those numbers are a mix of room types and price points. My assumption is at this price point ($600 for 750 sq ft 1 br condo with kitchen and balcony vs $400 for std 350 sq ft hotel room) occupancy % would be somewhat less. I couldn't get full recon on this, so it's perhaps the weakest part of my estimates.

Again, we're lifestyle investors looking for an opportunity that fits into our lifestyle which includes very little active involvement on our part. Also, willing to play the longer term game as long as we're roughly cash flow neutral in the near term.

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Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
1y

It sounds really nice. But keep in mind, what is "new" now will be "old" in 10 years. A condo isn't the worst investment; that prize goes to a timeshare.  

Just keep in mind you are buying a commodity. With commodities, such as oil, soybeans, gold, cattle, and copper, there is no distinguishing feature that separates the units. They are all the essentially the same, and the price is simply a matter of supply and demand. That is why these are typically traded, rather than invested in.  

Where that cycle is in downtown Nashville is anyone's guess.

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  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1y

    It sounds really nice. But keep in mind, what is "new" now will be "old" in 10 years. A condo isn't the worst investment; that prize goes to a timeshare.  

    Just keep in mind you are buying a commodity. With commodities, such as oil, soybeans, gold, cattle, and copper, there is no distinguishing feature that separates the units. They are all the essentially the same, and the price is simply a matter of supply and demand. That is why these are typically traded, rather than invested in.  

    Where that cycle is in downtown Nashville is anyone's guess.

  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    1y

    It sounds like you know many of the negatives and that should be enough.

    Also you can make time to be a serious investor. I worked a full time job as an engineer and still made time to find deals to purchase. This allowed me to retire early from my W2 job.

    If you want it bad enough you will find a way, if not you will find an excuse.

    • Member since 2022 · 13 posts · 1 vote
      1y
      Quote from @John Underwood:

      It sounds like you know many of the negatives and that should be enough.

      Also you can make time to be a serious investor. I worked a full time job as an engineer and still made time to find deals to purchase. This allowed me to retire early from my W2 job.

      If you want it bad enough you will find a way, if not you will find an excuse.


      I agree, John, but I don't want to do more with RE than taking a very passive role. Unfortunately it's not just the job which is a 55-60 hr per week. I also take care of a disabled brother, an elderly dad and a son with severe depression. I love my full-time gig (which is pretty lucrative) and don't want to replace that with RE investment. I get why many people do want to do that, and I'm glad that you've been able to make that switch work for you. I think many others still dream to do so. 

  • Member since 2022 · 13 posts · 1 vote
    1y

    I've heard similar complaints about condos for years, and I think your comments generally have merit. However one of my regrets was not investing in a condo in downtown Nashville in 2008. This was just prior to the sub-prime meltdown. It was a new build priced at $350K for a 2-bed, which we thought was a fortune back then. That condo just listed for $950K. That's a 40% higher appreciation than across Davidson County over that same period. Obviously the last couple of decades, Nashville has proven to be the exception rather than the rule in many ways. I'm still very bullish on Nashville, largely because of the business development growth happening. Recent commercial or mixed use developments like Nashville Yards, and the upcoming Oracle HQ development in East Nashville will forever change the economics of the city IMO. I think that will fuel Nashville RE growth in similar ways that leisure travel has for the last 2 decades. But you are right about not knowing when the Nashville express train will start to slow down.

  • Michael BaumPro Member
    Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    1y

    Hey @Randy Davis, after reading your ideas and things going on, I don't think a STR is the way to go IMHO.

    It looks like this condotel might work OK, but you will need to unload it eventually and that can be a challenge. More so than a standard condo.

    If you are looking for pure passive, maybe you look at a real estate fund? There are quite a few out there that give you 9-12%. There are some that are giving 16%.

    The only issue is that you need a minimum investment and be accredited. 

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