First Deal Analysis in Jersey

[Wesley Clark]

Hello BP - looking for assistance in analyzing my first deal. I just put it through the rental calculator and BRRRR calculator and it does not look promising from a Cash on Cash return perspective. I'm wondering if SFR in my area based on taxes etc are just out of reach or if I am being too conservative in my numbers.

Currently approved for a Fannie May loan which buddles renovation into the purchase price.

3BR / 1BA SFR

List - $111k

ARV - $150k

Assumed purchase price - $80k

Reno - $17k-$20k

$14.5k down

$4.5k taxes

$55PMI

$6k closing

5% interest, 30 years, 1.2 points

$1,400/mon conservative rent projection.  Would likely start at $1,600 but comfortable I could get $1,400.

Lender quote of expenses at $80k purchase price is $975-$1,000 month.  When I account for vacancy, repairs, capex and prop management it pushes me into a flat or negative cash flow projection plus alot of upfront cash.  Am I right to walk away or am I just too conservative on this one and hoping to land the perfect deal....

Thank you all