Newbie in Cincinnati (NKY) - 2 Deals to chose from

Newbie in Cincinnati (NKY) - 2 Deals to chose from

Investor · Ft. Thomas, KY · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 4 votes

I am a new investor in the Northern Kentucky area. My region is essentially the southern suburb of Cincinnati. I am focusing on an urban area. I am looking to invest in my first property and essentially have two deals that I am considering. My main question is, what deal should I take? Or more importantly, should I try to do both?!?

Deal 1: a $42,000 duplex in a blue collar area with a motivated seller. If I do this deal I am going to owner-occupy for a year or so and do an FHA loan. Both units are move-in ready and vacant, but they bring roughly $500/mo when occupied. All utilities are separate and could be payed by tenant, but there are no appliances (fridge or oven) in either unit. I seem to be getting reasonable FHA pricing on this deal - 3.5% down, 3.5-4% rate, asking owner to pay closing, etc.

Deal 2: I have a solid lead on a yet-to-be-listed $70,000 triplex in a hotter neighborhood. The building has a large two bedroom top floor, an efficiency unit in back and a small commercial space in front. All units are occupied on month-to-month agreements. This unit has the same furnace, electrical and water heater for the whole building, so I would pay utilities. The owner is wealthy and doesn't want to deal with the hassle of land-lording OR selling in a traditional sense. He is free and clear on the property and is considering seller financing for the right buyer. This would require around 10% down, a short term agreement until I can potentially refinance in 2-3 years, a finders fee for the middle man (3-5%?) and other costs. 

Finally, a little about me: I am a college graduate, early 30's, make about $60K a year and have reasonably stable finances. I have been researching real estate investing and pouring over listings in my market for at least 6 months (BP has been awesome, btw). My inclination is to jump in with both feet and go after both deals. Both are cash flow positive with solid cap rates and I am going in with eyes wide open (as much as possible) Anyone wanna talk me off the ledge?

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San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 5 votes
10y
If you pass in either deal I'd appreciate it if you passed it on for me to evaluate
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  • Rental Property Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2016 · 293 posts · 88 votes
    10y

    Did you account for cap ex and repair? What about property management? (factor in some even if you aren't hiring someone. That will leave you he option later.

    I say if you are sure they will cash flow - then jump away!

  • Investor · Ft. Thomas, KY · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Melissa - Thanks! I hadn't considered a placeholder for prop management. Good advice. As far as CapEx, both properties of course have potential issues (#1: appliances, a roof down the line; #2 a furnace soon, etc.), but the cash flow is very positive on both properties (they both exceed the 2% of total purchase price each month rule). I just looked at a BP blog post on capex with some good rules of thumb, perhaps I need to think more about is and adjust my math... My biggest risk is, if I do this I will be cleaning out my savings with startup costs, so it'll take me a year or so to really build up my emergency funds. Thanks again.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    There are no cap rates on these properties.  Forget that.  What is the plan if the commercial tenant leaves?  Newport, Covington, Bellevue?  Go 4 blocks from the river and you have tons of boarded up retail or parking lots where commercial property used to be.  I would stay away from the commercial.  What is around the $42,000 duplex?  What was there 10 years ago? 

  • Investor · Ft. Thomas, KY · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Bob - Thanks for the advice.  The one things I like about the commercial property is it is a long term small business that is not dependent on one individual (being intentionally vague here). Its also not the primary income driver of the property, which is strange I know. I believe I could manage it but it is a legit concern. You need to come back to Newport, my friend! That characterization of the city could not be further from the truth in 2016. Property 2 is in a very solid, retail part of the city, and number 1 is in a more residential area, but two blocks from police, gas station, laundry, newer restaurants, etc. I have tried to be very picky about my locations.

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 5 votes
    10y
    If you pass in either deal I'd appreciate it if you passed it on for me to evaluate
  • Investor · Florence, KY · Member since 2016 · 11 posts · 2 votes
    10y

    Deal #1 seems a no-brainier, given what you've laid out.  Living in a duplex while someone else pays your mortgage is a great way to test out being a landlord, with somewhat limited risk.  Deal number 2 I'd need more information about.  I share Bob's reservation about commercial property in the areas he mentioned, but it might be worthwhile on a case by case basis. 

    Edit: I see its in Newport, which is better than Covington. 

  • Investor · Bellevue, KY · Member since 2015 · 45 posts · 8 votes
    10y

    Chris I have a duplex in Covington (near Latonia) where I lived for a year on an FHA loan. The numbers between property 1 and my duplex are pretty much identical except your purchase price is better than mine was. You can also save greatly on the appliances via Craigslist or Roecker & Boerger Scratch & Dent store. If this is the case property 1 sounds like a great investment! After the year went by I moved to Bellevue and am working on a live in flip/refi. All of Northern Kentcuky is heading in the right direction. If you can get a good deal for property 2 as well, then I say dive on in!

  • Investor · Ft. Thomas, KY · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Thanks Brian! 

    Matt - I actually live in Bellevue now in a single family rental property (not mine, of course). Bellevue and Newport are both great cities. I have been considering Dayton as well, as there are decent deals there and it appears that the revitalization of the riverfront is making its way to Dayton slowly but surely! I would be interested to hear your thoughts on Latonia. I have been to a couple of open houses and see a lot of deals in the area, but I am on the fence about investing there. 

  • Investor · Falmouth, KY · Member since 2016 · 37 posts · 13 votes
    10y

    I agree on the duplex. If I could line in our and rent the other I would do it in a heartbeat.  That strategy for a new investor is a great and fairly safe way to get started.  Is the commercial property suitable for you to stay in one of those units?  That could be another option.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Chris Eden:

    Bob -  You need to come back to Newport, my friend!       

    Chris, I was back in 2013.  My buddy has a condo in the old Booth Hospital with views across the river into the Reds stadium.  I had a blast walking into Cincy over the Roebling and hitting the casino and then across into Newport and over the Licking back to Covington. 

    I went to high school in Newport, Dixie Heights and Boone County.  I lived in Newport at 911 York, 610 Monroe and on Linden and Lexington that were demo'd for the freeway.  I lived at 915 O'Fallon and went to Dayton elementary and spent my Saturdays at the Marianne after buying my candy at the corner store.

    As a Realtor my first listing was either on 4th or 5th or Nelson Place.  Too long ago but the asking price was $26,000 for a very nice brick house in the early 70's.

    Marianne closed, Tacoma Swim Club closed.  Maisontte closed, La Normandie closed, Pigall's closed.

    1960 Cincy population 500,000, now about 300,000.

    1960 Newport population 30,000, now about 15,000!

    Monmouth Street was full of business and casinos and supper clubs.  Now it is parking lots!

    Population started dying about the time they made illegal gambling illegal.

    What's going on with the projects?  How long has that been scraped?  Looks like the Ovation deal is dead.  Not that it seemed to be that great of an idea.  What a fantastic location that could literally be used to create a new downtown business district to rival Cincy.  But it is in the hands of the same people that built Newport on the Levee with movie theaters occupying river view locations!!!!  Movie theaters don't have windows!

    I think if you run the numbers on the duplex you'll see that inflation and capex will eat up ALL your money over time.  What was that property worth 10, 20, 30 years ago?  Rents?

    In that market I'd be looking at locations that can't be duplicated and have an appeal like a view.  Even in Honolulu I always ask myself why would someone want my property if the demand dropped 50%.  You'll attract cheap at cheap places but cheap is easy to duplicate.

    So what is special about the duplex?

  • Investor · Ft. Thomas, KY · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Bob - You clearly have much more experience than me, so thanks for the advice!

    All in all, I am comfortable focusing on Newport. In fact my search is focused on Newport and east along the riverfront through Dayton. I have avoided Covington and west, because it appears as if Newport's success is having a negative impact on Covington's population (not whole numbers, but quality tenants).

    Monmouth Street has truly come back to life recently. Google maps just doesnt do it justice. New restaurants on every block (Sis's, Packhouse, and several others), bars are doing what they do, a new development called "Monmouth Row" at 5th & Monmouth, new city buildings at 10th & 11th and Monmouth. Its a good mix of old (Pepper Pod, Dixie Chili, Knife shop, etc.) and new at the moment. I would argue its better to move out some of the strip club and gambling and move in more family friendly businesses, but its taken some time to find that balance. And It's funny you mention the Ovation property (http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2016/08/17/corporex-buys-nearly-3-acres-for-massive.html) It seems to be alive again. The state is also expanding the AA Highway/Route 9 (it is already about 1/4 done) through the Westside of Newport to increase economic development along that route. That explains why some of the public housing around there has been torn down. Its part of a plan, not just more parking lots

    I would encourage you to stay engaged in the region - I would argue that the metro area has in many way's "turned over" from the glory days of the 50s-70s. Maisonette has a new tenant called Boca which is great. Orchids at Palm Court is a top restaurant in the entire Midwest if you ask me! (food in general in the area is amazing right now) Downtown is coming back slowly but surely, the Banks project is on phase 3, GE just moved over 1,00 employees to the riverfront and P&G is consolidating more of there people downtown on a regular basis. Over the Rhine of course is a story in and of itself, and it is pretty amazing what has happened there. And as a whole, both Cincinnati metro and Campbell County are growing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_metropoli...) especially with millennials and YP’s. All this to say, I clearly have a passion for the area and believe in its potential. Just trying to spread the love. 

    I will continue to look into the things you bring up, and I do appreciate the advice. One question though, it appears to me that for a buy-and-hold investor, inflation and fluctuating market demand are not all bad. Of course a rising tide lifts all boats, but generally if the value of your debt decreases while rents and the number of renters increase, that's not a bad thing? The duplex does not have a view, but it is in a very walkable neighborhood with good amenities: new restaurants, shops, police and fire and convenience stores within two blocks. Both units bring about $550 right now, and all utilities are separate and updated so tenants would pay those. I am hoping to add value by slowly renovating kitchens, adding coin laundry and other income generators. I just cant start with a top level property in my price range.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Chris Eden:

     One question though, it appears to me that for a buy-and-hold investor, inflation and fluctuating market demand are not all bad. Of course a rising tide lifts all boats, but generally if the value of your debt decreases while rents and the number of renters increase, that's not a bad thing? The duplex does not have a view, but it is in a very walkable neighborhood with good amenities: new restaurants, shops, police and fire and convenience stores within two blocks. Both units bring about $550 right now, and all utilities are separate and updated so tenants would pay those. I am hoping to add value by slowly renovating kitchens, adding coin laundry and other income generators. I just cant start with a top level property in my price range.

    If the rents and the market value do not keep up with inflation you are slowly losing money even with a fixed mortgage.  You really need to project out income and expenses for at least 10 years.  Again I'll ask what that property was worth 10,20,30 years ago and the same for rents.

    It's great that you are looking at future development and population growth but your link said the growth is mostly more kids being born that old people dying.  That is not the best economic forecast.

    Development?  What about Mainstrasse in Covington?  What has that done for Covington over almost 50 years?  Didn't Covington also do a major rehab of Madison Pike?  It also has had I 71-75 for decades and what has that done for Covington?  What did I 471 do for Newport and Bellevue?  Even if Ovation goes forward all you have to do is look at the Covington riverfront with the Ascent and other highrises where there are $5,000,000 penthouses and mansions but three blocks away you can buy a $10,000 house.

    I'm not knocking Newport or Cincy. There is some fantastic housing stock.  I actually considered retiring there and using it as a cheap base for traveling but don't get me started on the poor state of CVG airport!  No matter what happens to the population the riverfront will always attract the top of the market.  Trendy areas come and go if it is just based on a few hip bars and restaurants.  I encourage you to look at value now and into the future and the past.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    http://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/newports-reinvent...

    I wonder if this will attract new business or cannabilize what is there.  I guess good either way if you are in the construction business.

  • Loveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 9 votes
    10y

    Hey Chris,

    I'm new to the NKY area, I'm in Parks Hills.  I'd say I'm newer to real estate investing than you but similar goals and background.  Having been in Park Hills for a couple weeks, I'm still trying to get a lay of the land on where and what to invest in, in the area.  I've been on some runs through Covington and Newport so I have a little familiarity with those areas. It's a lot different from where I was in Charlotte, NC.

    I'm in the middle of reading Frank Gallinelli's book What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash flow.  There are some good calculations on the time value of money in there.  I'm sure you can find the same on BP.  Take my opinion with a grain of salt since I'm new, but from what I've seen of Newport & Covington,  I'd make sure the property cash flows and will continue to because I don't see a lot of potential for an upswing in valuation coming from these areas themselves.

    Curious on if you are moving forward with either of these deals?

    Thanks for posting,  this is a good real life deal in my area I can practice running numbers on.

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