Newbie Tax Question

[Ty Moore]

I am planning to purchase a foreclosure this week for $161,000 and put $20,000 into it with the hopes of it appraising around $250,000. My original plan was to flip the property and sell it for a quick $40,000 or so. The main reason for this is because the BRRRR strategy will put me in the red on Cash flow by about $200/month with the mortgage to pull all my $ out.

Looking into the taxes on a fix/flip it looks like (based on my tax bracket) that I will pay 12% ($4,800) in short term capital gains tax if I sell it before one year of ownership. However, if I were to keep it for a year (and rent it out), I would actually pay $0 in long-term capital gains tax. 

If I'm correct about all of that, by holding the house for a year, it would save me $400 per month. So even if I'm in the red on cashflow by $200/month, it still makes more sense to hold it with the negative cashflow to save the $ on short term capital gains tax. 

AM I LOOKING AT THIS CORRECTLY?!?!