Dallas 4-plex analysis

[Bryce Y.]

Hey guys,
I am looking at buying my first investment property. Here are the numbers:

Asking 160k, but I plan to offer much less
Units are 2/1’s, rent for $595 each
Built 1984
Tenants pay utilities

Income: $595 x 4 = $2380 / month or $28,560 / year
Expenses (per month):
Insurance: $166 (no idea really, just guessing)
Taxes: $238 per DCAD
Vacancy: $238 (10%)
Management: $238 (10%)
Misc repairs/Long term capital expenses: $300
^ I just took 50% gross rents and subtracted all other expenses

NOI: $1200/month = $14,400/year
So offering $144k would put me at a 10 cap.

Now the financing. I plan to live in one of the units and use FHA financing but first let's calculate with conventional 25% down.
At 144k PP, 25% down = $36,000
Loan of $108,000 at 3.5% interest = $485 monthly payment
Cash flow of $1200 – 485 = $715 or $178 / door
ROI: 24%

FHA 3.5% down = $5040
Loan of $138,960 at 3.5% = $624 monthly payment
NOI of $595 (since I will be occupying one unit) means cash flow of -$29/month, but I will have a place to live.
Also PMI will cut into my cash flow as well, so say -$200/month.

I also plan to self manage, so that should increase my cash flow and ROI as well.

Now a few things:

1. The property is in a not so good area of town. For those that know, it is in zipcode 75223 just south of I-30. However, I drove by during the day and at night, and it doesn’t seem too bad. If I get it under contract I will scount the area much more thoroughly. The property is surrounded on both sides by empty lots, and sits next to a 3-lane road. Across is an industrial complex
2. Per the listing agent, the property is in good shape including roof, HVAC, and foundation. He won’t let me in until I submit an offer and it is accepted (with inspection contingency of course). I have no idea what kind of immediate repairs are necessary. How should I factor this in to my offer price?
3. There are separate gas and electric meters but a master water meter. I mentioned earlier that tenants pay all utilities. Per the lease, the landlord pays water then divides by 4 (or however many units are occupied) and bills the tenants. This seems odd to me. Any thoughts?
4. The tax value of this property is 98k. I know tax value doesn't necessarily reflect market value, but this seems like a huge difference. I tried to pull comps but I get nothing. This worries me because what if the FHA appraisal comes in significantly less? I will just have to come out of pocket to cover the difference?

Sorry for the long post! Any advice is appreciated. Thanks!

[Carlos Flores]

Bryce Y. In less than two minutes I discovered following: Sold 7/2009 for $100k, no seller PDs, 145 CDOM. Current CDOM 129. Per TXDPS, registered sex offenders in 2 of 4 units. 1 male, 1 female. Both had offenses against children, ages 9 and 11 respectively. 92 registered offenders within 1 mile.