Analyzing potential first deal

Analyzing potential first deal

Roseville Ca · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 43 votes

Hi everyone! I've been looking for a few months now for my first deal and boy does it seem hard to find a "great" deal right now. I have made contacts with personnel in hopes of off market deal funnels and I have either heard nothing back from some (they must have buyers bigger and longer standing than me they cater to) or have gotten some deals from others but they just aren't what Im looking for. In saying all of this Im starting to wonder if I should "just do something" even if it is buy a turn key instead of holding out for that perfect brrrr deal. So Im looking at a duplex now that I have run some numbers on and looking for those wiser than myself that can offer some feedback. 

2 bed 2 bath/ea side Duplex asking $123,500 (built in 2003)

Property is located in South Mississippi and is a College town

Lot is almost 9000sqft, duplex is 1300sqft total on a slab

Gross rents are $15,900 annually which seems a bit below market, waiting to hear back on potential reasons ie S8, long time tenant/tenants etc? I believe rents should be $16,800-$18,000 yearly per rentometer.

If Im doing this right I'm calculating a cap rate of 6.14% considering the mortgage or 11.2% no mortgage. 

Purchase $123,500 (if not negotiated down) with 31k (25%) down payment

approx 4k closing costs (not sure of accuracy)

Gross Rents $15,900 - 10% Prop Mgt - %5 vacancy - 5% repairs - 5% cap Ex - $900 yrly Ins - $1104 yrly Prop Tax = Net Rents $13,889 annually

Financing would be $92.5k 30 yr fixed at (assuming) 5.5% rate. Credit score over 800 and DTI 25%.

Any feed back would be greatly appreciated! Wondering if I should keep holding out for a BRRRR deal, do something like this turn key or hold out another year or two and save more cash for a larger MFH 10-20 unit?

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  • Member since 2018 · 12 posts · 9 votes
    7y

    Hey George,

    I won't comment on whether or not you should do this, but it did look like the expense math was a bit off. Summarized based on your projections below, but you may also be missing some other things like gas/electric/trash/sewer/lawn care/etc. (unless everything is completely the responsibility of the tenants).

    For the cap rate, cap rates are calculated as Net Operating Income (NOI) / Purchase Price, so the mortgage or no mortgage doesn't really play here. The cap rate based on what you've I think listed as your NOI ($13,889) comes out to 11.3%, while your cash-on-cash return would come out to around 21.5% (NOI - Debt Service) / $ invested (assuming the same NOI figure)

    That said... I'd take a hard look at what's being listed in your run down as "Net Rents" as it doesn't look quite right.

    Gross Rents: $15,900

    Expenses:

    PM @ 10% = $1590

    Vacancy @ 5% = $795

    Repairs @ 5% = $795

    Cap Ex @5% = $795

    Ins = $900

    Prop Tax = $1104

    Total Expenses: $5,979

    Some things missing: Water, Sewer, Trash, Contract Services

    Net Operating Income: $9,921

    Debt expense (@ the rate/terms you mentioned): $6300 yearly

    Net Proceeds:

    $3621

    ~10% CoC (assuming $35k invested)


    Happy to chat 1:1 if it's helpful. I'm in a similar boat of figuring out the best path forward.

    Cheers,

    Andrew

    • Roseville Ca · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 43 votes
      7y

      Oh wow I jacked up my math when subtracting expenses. Gross rents $15,900 - all expenses is actually gross yearly net $9921. Subtract mortgage from that 9921-6300 = $3,621 Net Yearly. 

      Im just in love with the brrrr idea and pulling my cash back out for the next deal vs turn key like this where we have to leave money in the deal. 

    • Roseville Ca · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 43 votes
      7y

      @Andrew Fernquist seems I was typing my correction the same time you were replying also. Yes I had a typo on the math for sure. Thanks for the advice, yes I did forget to include and currently waiting to hear back regarding lawn care which Im sure is on me. Gas/elect/water/sewage is usually on the tenant in this area and I didn't even think of garbage and that could go either way tenant or me. Thanks again for the heads up and yes I will DM you and get in touch! 

    • Investor · Jackson, MS · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 769 votes
      7y

      Hi George, I grew up in Roseville but have been living in Mississippi for the last 18 years. I presume the town you are talking about is Hattiesburg? Be very careful of turn-keys in Mississippi if you don't know the neighborhood, but Hattiesburg is probably safer in that regard than Jackson. 

    • Roseville Ca · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 43 votes
      7y

      @Susan Maneck thanks! Looks like we are opposites, I grew up 40 min south of Hattiesburg and now live in Roseville. Yes this property is just outside of Hburg. But I’m probably going to hold off as it’s only an “ok” deal. I’d rather find a good brrrr so that I can cash out refi. 

    • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
      Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      7y

      @George Lods something is off with your numbers. First, CAP Rate only applies if it is a cash purchase with no mortgage. Cash on cash return is with financing. Generally, cash on cash return is higher than CAP Rate. In your analysis, it's the reverse. That doesn't look right.

    • Roseville Ca · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 43 votes
      7y

      @Mike D'Arrigo you are right and a few minutes after posting I realized my numbers were off and followed up on my post w/ my own comment w/ the correct numbers. Thanks for the CAP RATE tip regarding mortgage. I wondered why when I saw others run that analysis I didn't see mortgage subtracted, well now I know. The hunt continues!

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