San Diego or Phoenix?

San Diego or Phoenix?

Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes

I'm about to sell my condo in downtown San Diego and should end up with around $130k after costs.  I plan on doing a 1031 exchange to buy more investment propertie(s).

I was planning on buying about 3 triplexes or quads in Phoenix for the cash flow. I really wasn't concerned about appreciation as most of the buildings are so cheap here ( sub $200k). I was planning on putting $42,500 down on each one, then saving the NOI and buying more in perpetuity.

Now I'm looking at all the short sale SFH, and full price duplexes in San Diego. They all seem to be around $425-500k (I would put the entire $130k down on one property). The reason that puts a monkey wrench in my original plan is I am much more familiar with the San Diego market, as I grew up there. Also the appreciation would be far higher than it would be in Phoenix. However if I was lucky I would be able to make around $12k a year NOI, while in Phoenix the number would be closer to $18k I'm guessing.

My short term goal is to eliminate any reason to work overtime at my job, while my long term goal is to do REI full time.

Thanks for any advice.

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Anthony GaydenPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
11y

@Bud Dwyer I should mention that I am a bit biased toward Phoenix since I live in Arizona and already invest there, but there are some other positives. Arizona is a very landlord friendly state compared to California. The taxes in AZ are dirt cheap, and I am saying that as a person from Kansas. The dry warm weather means that there will be a lot less maintenance issues than in a more wet environment.

Some of the downsides include much less appreciation, and very little actual multi-family housing stock is available, especially at a reasonable price. In fact, that is the reason why I am looking in Tucson for my next purchase rather than Phoenix, even though I believe Phoenix is a much better market.

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  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2012 · 108 posts · 49 votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer  Is your condo you are selling a rental property or did you live in it? You may not have to do a 1031 exchange depending on that situation.

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Aaron R.:

    @Bud Dwyer  Is your condo you are selling a rental property or did you live in it? You may not have to do a 1031 exchange depending on that situation.

    It was a rental.

  • Real Estate Coach · Venice Beach, CA · Member since 2012 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Hey Bud, well one problem you are going to run into in both markets is neither of them are going to cash flow for you. Your only bet would be hoping for appreciation (which is more likely in SD, but still should be a strategic move or you risk losing a lot since it's negative cash flow every month). So make sure you know which track you are wanting, and if it's cash flow, be sure you know how to run those numbers because they aren't going to look too great in either place. Phoenix was a great option about 4 years ago but prices have skyrocketed since.

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes
    11y

    Can you explain how they wouldn't cash flow?

    My prospective numbers so far, for one quad I'm looking at is:

    Listing price : $185k

    Down payment $42,500

    Mortgage : $8664 per year (@ %4.5)

    Insurance : $1200

    Taxes : $1600

    Maintenance: $2000

    Trash $600

    Sewer/Water: $2200

    Management: $2520 (%10)

    Vacancy: $2016 (%8)

    TOTAL Expenses: $19000

    Total Rent per year : $25200

    $6200 Cash Flow (Did I do it right?)

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer Welcome to BP! Both areas are wise investments long term. San Diego is initially more challenging probably. The math looks about right and or allocate 50% for expenses on average. You could experience more expenses with turnover or larger items like roof or sewer line so these items should be inspected along with the rest when you are buying. Good luck with your search!

  • Investor · San Marcos, CA · Member since 2015 · 9 posts · 4 votes
    11y
    Hi Bud, I am a local realtor and real estate investor in North San Diego County. I was born and raised here, too. :) I am happy to connect if you need help with selling your property or locating a new one in the area. www.FineHomesSD.com or call/text 760-583-2226. ~Kara
  • Professional · Carlsbad, CA · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer

    Consider sending messages to other members which is my favorite part of the website.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Marino, CA · Member since 2011 · 398 posts · 144 votes
    11y

    i would do san diego since you are local and probably understand the geography much better.

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix Tempe Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2014 · 184 posts · 55 votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer

    Phoenix

    I live in San Diego and invest in AZ 

    Cash flow is way easier to attain in AZ and you will be able to build equity in multiple properties that way you can shed 1 and exchange up etc... 

    your number look ok !

    If you can add value to the duplexes in AZ, and if they are all near each other even better!

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Garrick Oconnell:

    @Bud Dwyer

    Phoenix

    I live in San Diego and invest in AZ 

    Cash flow is way easier to attain in AZ and you will be able to build equity in multiple properties that way you can shed 1 and exchange up etc... 

    your number look ok !

    If you can add value to the duplexes in AZ, and if they are all near each other even better!

    I'm inclined to agree with you there.  the more I look in to it Phoenix seems to be an easier market to cash flow in.  With San Diego I would be hedging all my cash on appreciation.  In Phoenix I can get triplexes or quads for well under $200k.

  • Anthony GaydenPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bud Dwyer:

    Can you explain how they wouldn't cash flow?

    My prospective numbers so far, for one quad I'm looking at is:

    Listing price : $185k

    Down payment $42,500

    Mortgage : $8664 per year (@ %4.5)

    Insurance : $1200

    Taxes : $1600

    Maintenance: $2000

    Trash $600

    Sewer/Water: $2200

    Management: $2520 (%10)

    Vacancy: $2016 (%8)

    TOTAL Expenses: $19000

    Total Rent per year : $25200

    $6200 Cash Flow (Did I do it right?)

    Those numbers are very similar to the 4 plex I own in Phoenix, and it cash flows well. Of course I have seen similar buildings to the one I bought only a year ago on the MLS for $30-40,000 higher than what I paid.

  • Anthony GaydenPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer I should mention that I am a bit biased toward Phoenix since I live in Arizona and already invest there, but there are some other positives. Arizona is a very landlord friendly state compared to California. The taxes in AZ are dirt cheap, and I am saying that as a person from Kansas. The dry warm weather means that there will be a lot less maintenance issues than in a more wet environment.

    Some of the downsides include much less appreciation, and very little actual multi-family housing stock is available, especially at a reasonable price. In fact, that is the reason why I am looking in Tucson for my next purchase rather than Phoenix, even though I believe Phoenix is a much better market.

  • Investor · Chino Hills, CA · Member since 2014 · 3 posts · 2 votes
    11y

    @Bud Dwyer

    have you considered keeping your SD condo and just cashing out some of the equity you have in it? if it is already rented out and hopefully cash flow positive then I wouldn't touch it, get some money out and  buy in Arizona.

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Sam Kassi:

    @Bud Dwyer

    have you considered keeping your SD condo and just cashing out some of the equity you have in it? if it is already rented out and hopefully cash flow positive then I wouldn't touch it, get some money out and  buy in Arizona.

     I was looking in to doing that, but the numbers made it seem like I would have an extra mortgage payment.  I would rather cash out the equity and buy more properties.

  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Bud -

    What part of AZ are you finding tri/quad plexes for well under $200k? The only areas that I know of in the valley that offer those prices anymore are war zones.

    The price for a multi-unit in a safe part of town is $300k+.

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 61 posts · 17 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Scott E.:

    Bud -

    What part of AZ are you finding tri/quad plexes for well under $200k? The only areas that I know of in the valley that offer those prices anymore are war zones.

    The price for a multi-unit in a safe part of town is $300k+.

    As long as war zones pay on time...

  • Hard Money Lender · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 97 posts · 36 votes
    11y

    @Anthony G hit it on the head I think. For a long term rental landlord laws are a big concern. California tends to side with the renter where as Arizona can be more landlord friendly (I've lived in both states). Will you be able to evict a delinquent tenant in a reasonable amount of time? Do you have the power to increase rents with market? A few things to consider.

  • Anthony GaydenPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Scott E.:

    Bud -

    What part of AZ are you finding tri/quad plexes for well under $200k? The only areas that I know of in the valley that offer those prices anymore are war zones.

    The price for a multi-unit in a safe part of town is $300k+.

     Perhaps we have different definitions of "War Zone". I admit, the properties that I am looking to buy and that I own are lower income, but they are not located in "War Zones" by any means.

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