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Updated about 5 years ago on . Most recent reply
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Family Inherited Large Property in LA - How much is it worth?
My grandmother bought a minority share in a commercial property nearly 50 years ago. She passed on her shares to my mother and her siblings about 20 years ago. They together own 25% of a large commercial building in Commerce City, Los Angeles, CA. It has been paying them together $50k a year (take home) for the last decade.
They want to sell now! What do you think it's worth?
Here is my reasoning. On investments like this, you should expect a 6% to 10% return. That return will come in 2 parts: equity and income. Equity is just the value of the building/land. Income is of course what you get paid from rent. Let's assume that the equity will grow by 3% each year. That means 3% to 7% will come from income.
Now we do a little algebra ;-)
Min: Income = 7% of Estate Value = 7% * Estate Value
Max: Income = 3% of Estate Value = 3% * Estate Value
Min: Value = Income / 7% = $12k / .07 = $171,400
Max: Value = Income / 3% = $12k / .03 = $400,000
So I would guess as much as $400 and as little as $170k.
However, if you use an equity growth rate of 4.5% (which is the average return in LA over the last 50 years), the numbers change a lot!
Max: Value = Income / 1.5% = $12k / .015 = $800,000
So it could be as high as $800k for each share!
Definitely need a good real estate agent to help us, right?
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Valuing commercial property is pretty straightforward once you understand NOI and cap rates. There is some local knowledge in there for what this type of property would trade at depending on a few things that are beyond the scope of this post. If you want to understand the value of the commercial property then you just need to know income minus expenses = Net operating income (NOI). Luckily, we have that 50k number. Now we just need the cap rate for the area which let's say is around a 5.
So here is my guess on value given the information I have. The NOI of 25% of this property is 50k. At a 5 cap that is worth 1M. This would make the total NOI of 100% of the investment 200k and worth 4M. The folks who own the other 75% could have the first right of refusal and a way of valuing the property, you need to check the documents related to the ownership.