Duplex Evaluation - ARV & Rental values - Cash Flow vs. $on$

[Alex Zyskowski]

Hello! I am evaluating a Duplex in a semi-rural area in northern Michigan (about 30mins SW of Traverse City). I am struggling to find comps for both the purchase price, potential ARV, and potential rents to determine if this is a good deal or not

The Property:

Duplex built in 2006 on ~1acre with 2Bed 1Bath and semi-finished walk-out basement each. Potential to add a bed and bathroom in basement to make 3bed/2bath.

Asking $159,900, seller has come down to $142,500 + closing costs of about $2500 for a total purchase price of $145k.

I am told one unit is in good shape, needs nothing and is currently rented for $600/month. The other unit needs complete renovation. I have not seen the property in person and available photos are only of the unit that needs to be renovated.

Utilities are separated by unit.

The Numbers:

List Price - $159,900

Seller counter - $145k (including closing)

Taxes - $1,286 (2018) - estimating will be $2000 after purchase

Renovations - Seller estimated $15-$18k for the 1 unit and nothing for the other. I estimated $50k for both units, if only one needed could probably get away with $20-$25k

Rents - current unit = $600/month. Estimated $700/month for 2bed 1bath and $800-$900/month for newly renovated 3bed/2bath. TOTAL = $1500-$1600/month. Struggling to find good comps in the zip code and as I start to move out they get higher as they get closer to Traverse City. 

ARV = ?? struggling to find this. Could be anywhere from $200-$250k which is obviously a huge variance. What tips and tricks do you use to find this when there a are very few comps and even fewer duplex's? (most homes in area are single family, many manufactured or mobile type homes). This number is a make or break on the brrRr part as I could either get all my cash back out on the refinance or end up with $25k+ left into it.

Because there are so many variables, I am trying to be conservative yet realistic. I used 5% for vacancy, CapEx, etc.(no management fee as it will be self managed) and 2% for future assumptions (6% for sale costs)

Based on the numbers below, what do you all think?! Do you prefer lower cash flow but high or infinite Cash-on-Cash? Are you OK with more cash invested but higher cash flow? 

I appreciate all of your insights and help on my first potential multi-family purchase!