Population Migration Debate

[Account Closed]

As investors, when assessing new markets to invest in, we often hear we should look to population migration patterns as a metric. These numbers can show a pattern in a certain year or number of years. However, is this really a reliable indicator of continued migration to or from that market?

Compare this pattern of thinking to the stock market: "The market is going up, so its only going to continue going up, right?" How do we know when that market is saturated and can no longer sustain growth? Surely, at some point the market will come back to equilibrium.

Will people migrate back to locations that saw a net migration outflow? Prices and rents in areas that have seen an outflow likely have gone down. In an economic downturn people turn to spending less. Should we potentially be looking into these markets as well?