Comps are all over the place... good deal or pass?

[Stanford Neal Mead]

Greetings BP,

I was hoping I could get some friendly advice on this potential flip. It looked like a good deal at first, but recently sold comps are all over the board (25K up to 125K). Here are the nuts and bolts and a link with more details for anyone interested.

Purchase Price: 50k net (seller paying all closing costs)

Renovation Costs: 13K

ARV: Difficult to determine, but I'd say 85K is being conservative based on the comps we have researched.

Net Profit: 16K after closing costs

Link: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1eFAU_uPOxp9tt2cr...

The main thing that worries me here is the big spread on comps. When I eliminate the outliers, I end up in the 85-95K range on ARV. It has been over two months since our last deal and I might be suffering from some analysis paralysis here. Let me know your thoughts!

[Matt Crusinberry]

@Stanford Neal Mead, At first glance I would say your holding cost seem a little low. Some things you may want to consider while your holding is utilities, insurance, and any taxes you may incur. Assuming you have run the numbers for that, it still appears low. I would also say this area seems a little risky, as you may be holding for a little longer than you intend. So if you do go with it, you may want to think about alternative exit routes. For me personally, I would not take on this deal, but everyone is different. Good luck, whether you're able to tackle this guy or the next!