How Volatile are Cap Rates, Really?

[Rich Jordan]

Particularly with regard to Multifamily/Apartments. One reason I love this asset class is the opportunity for forced appreciation through building income and/or lowering operating expenses.

One factor out of an investor's hands - it seems - is the market cap rate, which will ultimately decide the asset's value at sale.

My question is: how volatile are are these cap rates? It seems like the highest they've been in recent memory is 8.5-9% back in early 2000s, generally have been floating in the 7's, and in super hot markets have gotten into the 5's.

If I'm attempting to forecast my apartment building's value at sale in few years (3/5/10yrs), can I be reasonably confident that the cap rate will remain within +/- 1.0% in my local area? It appears so unless I'm missing something.

Thoughts?