Beginning Real Estate Investing with a Potential Market Crash

Beginning Real Estate Investing with a Potential Market Crash

Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes

Hello BP community,

Some of you may read this subject and scoff at my post. However, I feel that this issue warrants consideration and would be especially useful to myself and other new investors.

As of late, many economists and market specialists are expecting the market to crash in the very near future. While I understand that many of these experts have perpetually pessimistic views on society and the economy, it is undeniable that the market has been booming at the highest rate since the years leading up to the previous financial crisis.

I understand from ample research on BP that many investment strategies are relatively unaffected by market dips and fluctuations because they are not typically reliant upon appreciation. However, I feel that a potential market crash could substantially impact beginning investors looking to make their first deal. If the market did crash, it would make it significantly easier for beginner investors to purchase properties with less money.

Thus, I would like to hear any thoughts and suggestions from the BP community regarding the possibly looming market crash, particularly in planning a first purchase as a beginner investor. Is it logical to wait until house prices drop or does it still make sense to ignore this and purchase a property now? Thank you all in advance for your insights!

Sincerely,

Tyler Vinsand

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Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
9y

There has been two housing crashes in my life. The 2007 mostly global crash, and the early 1990s Japanese crash.  I see no data to believe that nation wide housing collapses are common. Markets cycle. Prices go up and down, but bubbles and crashes of well any asset are incredibly rare.....and they are not something to be feared anyways. If the market for anything crashes, just buy more of that asset and you will likely do pretty good.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 351 posts · 141 votes
    9y

    @Tyler Vinsand Great question! People should list on this forum every key indicator they believe affects the real estate market, as well as data that we can take as signs for an upcoming crash. Here are mine: some basic but still hold true

    - amount of Notice of Defaults

    - unemployment rate

    - # of building permit applications by larger companies (Walmart, Starbucks, McDonalds)

    - ^ and large company store closings 

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 17 posts · 2 votes
    9y
    following. As a beginner trying to get his foot into this industry, this sort information is extremely valuable for me planning my next step. I was actually talking to my boss, the other day, and she informed me that she "has higher up friends in the govt" who were also saying "the economy will crash so hard that we won't be able to recover".
  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9y

    There has been two housing crashes in my life. The 2007 mostly global crash, and the early 1990s Japanese crash.  I see no data to believe that nation wide housing collapses are common. Markets cycle. Prices go up and down, but bubbles and crashes of well any asset are incredibly rare.....and they are not something to be feared anyways. If the market for anything crashes, just buy more of that asset and you will likely do pretty good.

  • Investor · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Tyler Vinsand @Account Closed To the both of you I can say that for certain there is always a crash around the corner. Being in the business for 25 years. That for certain will never change. You just need to be safe with each and every purchase. I look at each investment like this. A. Everything goes well and I make a lot of Money. B I make substantial profit. C. I break even or rent out the property and cover my expenses  D. I lose X amount of $$ because the market tanked or I just miscalculated but I can afford to risk and I will learn from that and move on. 

    If I can live with scenario D and the upside is large enough then I will pursue the deal.

    Where you can really get caught with your pants down is if you have too many flips going on at the same time and the market shifts. Then your holding costs will kill you and you wont be able to sell the property or even rent it out to come close to covering the monthly liability.

    In the rental game rents will shift but generally you are able to keep everything afloat. 

    One final note if the market crashes so badly then there is nobody that will be safe. thats out of our control. focus on what you can control which is your correct decision making and the correct due dilligence.

    good Luck

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Russell Brazil I agree; I acknowledge that a market crash yields a travesty for some, and a gold mine for others. I would like to be one of the individuals that capitalizes on this opportunity by buying when the market is down. Therefore, my question is whether it'd be more lucrative to begin investing now or if it'd make sense to hold out and see what the market does in the next year or two.

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 17 posts · 2 votes
    9y
    Thank you @Alex Deacon your insight was absolutely spot on and also gave me confidence to get in as quickly as I possibly could!
  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    Thank you for the insight @Alex Deacon!

  • Investor · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Can you also do me a quick favor. I am technologically challenged but i posted my first blog today. Literally a few hours ago. Can you read it and do whatever people do after reading a blog do? I just started using social media and BP last week because one of my younger and smarter associates urged me to do so.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9y

    @Tyler Vinsand Dont take this the wrong way....but you arnt smart enough to predict a turn in housing prices. Nor am I....nor is any fund manager, nor is Peter Lynch one of the greatest investors of the 20th century.  I rely on a lot of Lynchs investing philosophy, including one of his main points...

    “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

    Instead of worrying about the future value of housing buy now. Even if prices go down...borrowing costs will likely be higher as we are near the bottom of historical borrowing costs.  For the last 30 to 40 years we have been in a falling interest rate environment.  The probability that we enter a rising interest rate environment is much greater than seeing a significant nation wide  housing collapse.  But then again Ive been saying for a decade that interest rates must rise, so what do I know.  

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Russell Brazil You are absolutely right and that is an excellent point with a great quote. Thank you very much for your help.

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Alex Deacon Great blog post! I enjoyed reading it and left a comment. Feel free to reach out whenever you have any technology-related questions.

  • Real Estate Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Tyler Vinsand If you predict a correction (let's avoid "crash") long enough, eventually you'll be right. However, you miss out on $____ of cash-flow, principal pay-down, locking in an interest rate, etc. for how ever many years your wrong. I bet you can find some really smart people that have been saying Silicon Valley's rents were unsustainable more at least 3 years. They might have topped out but I haven't heard much talk of them regressing. My point isn't to try and sound smart in hindsight, it's to say that nobody knows. Focus on defining and finding the right property (for you) instead of trying to time the market. 🤷🏻‍♂️
  • Investor · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Tyler Vinsand Thank You for reading the Blog post. Thats the first time for me. 25 years in the RE investment side of things but 25 minutes into this social media blogging thingy. If you need any help I will try to answer the best I can and be frank and to the point. I find thats the best.

  • Investor · Kelso, WA · Member since 2016 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    Everyday the sun comes up is a good day to buy real estate (if you are buying for the long term)

  • Investor · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2016 · 970 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Just run the numbers. Theres deals in both good markets and bad markets. Especially if you're into buy and hold.

    Run your PITI and expenses and look at the average rents in your area. See if you can take a 25-30% decrease in rents (usually these are pretty inelastic even in a crash but better safe than sorry).

    If the numbers check out, great! if not then go for the next one. the best opportunity to do start things is NOW. no point in "waiting" for something you don't know when will happen and kicking yourself for not starting earlier.

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Andrew Johnson That's a great point. Missing out on a current profits while awaiting a possible downfall that I cannot predict is not worth it. Thank you for your help!

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @David Zheng You're absolutely right. I suppose that, as long as all the numbers work out, it is worth it. Thank you for your contribution!

  • Rental Property Investor · St. Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

     If you're buying long-term you just need to be careful at your analysis. When The market is up you want to make sure that historical renta and vacancies will support you in a downturn. You want to make sure you're conservative with your numbers.  Also be careful with leverage.   When I buy, I am aiming for a value add to ensure that I have 30–40% equity in my deal.  By keeping enough equity it will help ensure that you can stay afloat during the downturn.   I think any successful and seasoned investor will tell you to always stay conservative with all of your numbers, along with your reserve accounts.

  • Investor · Quincy, MA · Member since 2013 · 77 posts · 11 votes
    9y
    I was also wondering the same thing Tyler. I'm a new investor and was wondering if I should wait until housing prices started to drop. However, as mentioned previously, borrowing costs are at all time lows. I decided to buy a 2 family (just had an offer accepted on my first property), have the majority of my mortgage covered by living in one unit and renting the other, and save as much as I can for when the market does cool off. Hopefully by that time I'll have enough cash stashed to invest in more properties.
  • Investor · Pearl City, HI · Member since 2017 · 30 posts · 10 votes
    9y

    This was a great question and interesting read among the responses. I'm very new to investing myself and it is tempting to try and "time " the market (I've also heard of an impending crash) but I agree that its near impossible to ensure buy at the bottom and sell at the top.  I figure as long as you run your numbers conservatively you should be ok no matter what the market does...and if a crash comes, it'll be like a giant sale! Hopefully we have capital then to take advantage...

    I do wish I had a crystal ball though! :)

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Michael Zack It's good to hear from somebody in my shoes. Thanks for sharing!

  • Specialist · Virginia Beach, VA · Member since 2017 · 33 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Evelyn Kop Yes, a crystal ball would be very nice! Thank you for commenting Evelyn.

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