Echo Park, Los Angeles Oppurtunity

Echo Park, Los Angeles Oppurtunity

Financial Analyst · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 5 posts · 3 votes

I have an opportunity to purchase an off market 2-unit property in the Elysian Heights section of Echo Park.

To those familiar with the market:

First and foremost, the property would be my primary residence and would greatly decrease my personal basis as my % of the mortgage would be less than my current rent in a much inferior unit. Saving money from that alone.  On a $/psf basis, this transaction would be at the very top of the market which is scary, however, applying the rent for the unit which just had a lease signed at very high rents and applying market rent to the other unit (which I would occupy), the deal breaks even in year 1, (including all operating expenses, mortgage, mgmt. fee. etc.).

So my question:

Echo Park has seen significant rent appreciation over the previous few years. How safe is it to rely on appreciation in a market as desirable as Echo Park. Even if we see some sort of market correction in say 2018/2019, I honestly only see this neighborhood appreciating, especially as this would be a long term hold due to the location and the functionality of the site/property.

Thanks for guidance

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Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
10y

I would look at the long term averages for appreciation in rent and prices. Not this year or last year, but the long term averages over the last 30+ years, certainly long enough time period to capture both up markets and down markets and being careful not to cherry pick your start or end dates to be an up or down market.

If after underwriting with those averages and other reasonable projections you still like the investment under nominal scenarios, then you need to stress test your investment to make sure that under any bad (but still somewhat reasonable) circumstance you have the intent and ability to hold onto this property, or at the very lease have multiple exit strategies to sell at profit if you need or choose to. For example, could you afford to hold this property vacant indefinitely on your W2 income? If not, how long could you afford to hold with your W2 and capital reserves? Is there any reasonable scenario where you may need to do this? Are you well prepared to cover major CapEx events (eg: new roof)? These kind of questions ... you need to be sure you can make it to the long term before you can see the long term appreciation and over a multi-decade hold period Murphy is sure to come a-knockin' more than a few times.

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  • Real Estate Agent · Burbank, CA · Member since 2012 · 271 posts · 79 votes
    10y

    Is this off market duplex better than the ones from MLS?

    I would not base my calculation on the highest rent in the area. 

    Is the building under rent control? Can you post some numbers?

  • Financial Analyst · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 5 posts · 3 votes
    10y

    @Ciprian L. Thanks for the response.

    The off market aspect stops any bidder wars from increasing an already expensive property, which seems to be the norm in Northeast Los Angeles neighborhoods. Especially for an end user/owner occupant looking for a solid home.

    Topline Numbers

    Purchase price: $800,000. Property is under rent control, much like 90% of buildings in the area.

    If you look at comps for the past year, it seems you cannot get into Silver Lake/ Echo Park for under $750,000, unless property needs over $200,000 of capital to achieve market rents (only a few of those seem to have sold). How will the area properties continue to appreciate?

    Unit A: Lease signed for Aug 1, $2,800/mo, 1 bd/1 ba + den. This rental income decreases my mortgage to below market rents, far below what I am paying now for an inferior unit, I can then save  the difference.

    Unit B: I would occupy: 1 bd/ba, conservative market rent is $2,000/mo.

    Intangibles to note are location in the Echo Park Hills with expansive outdoor space including views of both the hills and downtown skyline plus a garage and parking for a few vehicles.

    Thanks for the insight!

  • Real Estate Agent · Burbank, CA · Member since 2012 · 271 posts · 79 votes
    10y

    I don't know if the property will appreciate or not in the next few years, but most likely in 30 years it will be higher in price than today. Do you plan to keep it long term?

    $2,800 for 1bd/1 ba seams high. Did you find the tenant or the seller? Can you find another tenant to pay the same amount if this tenant moves out?

    I would do my calculation with a $2,000 rent from the 1/1+den unit, just to be safe.


  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    I would look at the long term averages for appreciation in rent and prices. Not this year or last year, but the long term averages over the last 30+ years, certainly long enough time period to capture both up markets and down markets and being careful not to cherry pick your start or end dates to be an up or down market.

    If after underwriting with those averages and other reasonable projections you still like the investment under nominal scenarios, then you need to stress test your investment to make sure that under any bad (but still somewhat reasonable) circumstance you have the intent and ability to hold onto this property, or at the very lease have multiple exit strategies to sell at profit if you need or choose to. For example, could you afford to hold this property vacant indefinitely on your W2 income? If not, how long could you afford to hold with your W2 and capital reserves? Is there any reasonable scenario where you may need to do this? Are you well prepared to cover major CapEx events (eg: new roof)? These kind of questions ... you need to be sure you can make it to the long term before you can see the long term appreciation and over a multi-decade hold period Murphy is sure to come a-knockin' more than a few times.

  • Specialist · Fallbrook, CA · Member since 2016 · 30 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Appreciation aside, you will have no shortage of renters, as there's fairly high demand around there.  Neighboring areas continuing growing too, like Highland Park.  I know some first time home buyers there that are nearly covering their mortgage with airbnb profits in their separate studio apartment.  But the cleaning/upkeep can add up. 

    I'm curious @Coty H., how did you come upon this deal?  I'm looking for small multi units in NELA.

  • Investor · Tarzana CA and Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 326 posts · 130 votes
    10y

    Will the other unit have below market rents?   Rent control really makes any deal in ep sl etc really junky in my opinion.  Factor 20k to get the unit vacant per door.  

  • Investor · Tarzana CA and Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 326 posts · 130 votes
    10y

    well not any but any on the mls 

  • Financial Analyst · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 5 posts · 3 votes
    10y

    @David Faulkner

    Thanks for the suggestions. 

    Los Angeles stats:

    (1)

    Bull market (first quarter of 1975 through the third quarter of 1980): real home price increased by 69% over 23 quarters.

    Bear market (1980 Q4 to 1984 Q2): real price decreased by 9% for 15 quarters.

    (2)

    Bull market (1984 Q3-1989 Q4): up 67% for 22 quarters.

    Bear market (1990 Q1-1997 Q2): down 37% for 30 quarters.

    (3)

    Bull market (1997 Q3-2006 Q4): up 166% for 38 quarters.

    Bear market (2007 Q1-2012 Q2): down 43% for 22 quarters.

    (4)

    Bull market (2012 Q3-2015 Q1): so far the price is up 27% for 11 quarters.

    If history is any guide, the L.A. housing price cycle seems to last about 12 years on average, of which seven years is spent in the bull market with at least 65% real price appreciation, and five years is spent in the bear market. We are three years into the housing recovery that started in 2012, with 27% appreciation so far. On average, there will be four more years or 38% more price growth before we reach the turning point. - William Yu is an economist at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

    @Duke George Brady I found the property via co-workers family member

  • Contractor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2013 · 134 posts · 32 votes
    10y
    Hey @Duke George Brady:

    "I'm curious @Coty H., how did you come upon this deal?  I'm looking for small multi units in NELA."

    Please PM me in regards to your question above.

    Thank you.

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