Must move by July 2023. Buy now or wait?

Question

Wife and I are moving to North Carolina summer next year of 2023.

With the uncertainty of the market, I am unsure if I should buy a home NOW and rent it out until we move there, or roll the dice and wait to buy until next year.

Any thoughts? I keep leanings towards buy now. Interest rates will continue to rise, and home prices will probably continue to rise too I think (slowly at this point). Seems safer to buy something now but...I really don't know what is best...probably nobody knows what is best right now.

Pat Lulewicz · Answer

If you're buying in Greensboro, buy now. Will we still have 30% appreciation, probably not. But we're still on track to enjoy hypergrowth compared to the usual marker dynamics. There's a good chance that if you buy now, your original downpayment will be fully recouped, if not pretty close, by appreciation come late next summer. PE and other fund structures are heavily buying homes right now between $150K - $350K. This can only drive up our home prices.

Robert Phillips · Answer

I agree with Pat that I would buy now if you are looking for a personal residence. Price point and location will impact future appreciation though.  I'm very bullish on the appreciation in this market for the next 10 years.

Jayme Currie · Answer

Are you familiar with the Greensboro area already and do you plan to purchase additional rentals in this area once you've relocated? Purchasing investment properties out of state is one thing, but shopping for your primary residence is another. If your plan is to purchase multiple properties here I say go ahead and lock something down that you wouldn't mind living in for a year or 2. However, if you are shopping for your forever home it might make more sense to rent here for a while/live in a future rental until you can get a feel for which part of town you want to stay in long term.

Lexey Vezzoso · Answer

Hey James,

Of course no one can truly predict what is going to happen with the market, but that being said buy now. I have so many clients that want to wait for the market to "crash" and the ones that told me this two years ago are really paying the price now. I imagine the market in Colorado is similar to Boise and for every month that people are waiting to buy they cost themselves thousands in appreciation. I hope this helps!

Good luck,

Lexey Neitzel

Ryan Johnston · Answer

@James Honeycutt  Hey James, I realize your original post was about a month ago, but still wanted to chime in.  Sounds like you're looking to purchase a primary home.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  By summer of 2023, you would most likely see a reduction in interest rates, however to your point, home prices will not have dropped.  We aren't looking at a real estate "crash" more or less a real estate "slowdown".  We've been going 80mph over the past couple years, and may slow down to 50mph.  Still appreciating, just not at rate we've seen.  Silly analogy but hopefully gets the point across.  Also, with it being a primary home, you would need to move in within 60 days. If not, would require a higher down payment as it would be an investment property/second home.

In general, for anyone buying a primary now, I would approach it as a 2-way transaction.  Avoid the upfront costs (rate buydown via discount points, up front mortgage insurance, etc.)  Ultimately, whenever inflation is controlled (biggest enemy to mortgage rates), you'll see a rate reduction.  Don't have a crystal ball by any means, but when that does happen, you'll have an opportunity to refinance.  Let me know if you have any questions.  Good luck!

Keith Amado · Answer

Might be a good idea to come spend a long weekend in the area. Take that time to drive around town and maybe even connect with a few Realestate agents. Drive through some neighborhoods that appeal to you and then watch the MLS to see how things are moving. I’d probably vote for buying now instead of waiting another year.

Bill B. · Answer

I too think prices will continue to rise but you’ve got too many problems with buying now. You’ll need a higher  downpayment and pay a higher interest rate for the life of the mortgage because it won’t be your primary home. You’ll have a hard time finding a tenant to move in within the next 2 months and only stay for 1 year or you’ll have a vacant property for a year with all that entails.

Your only hope if you can’t move in the next 2-3 months is that your current home appreciates as much or more than the home you buy next year.

Must move by July 2023. Buy now or wait?

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