Starting Out: Thoughts On Out of State Bottom Up Market Analysis?

Starting Out: Thoughts On Out of State Bottom Up Market Analysis?

Andrew EhertsPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2020 · 32 posts · 23 votes

Hi all!

I've seen many RE hedge fund managers (especially the global ones like Blackstone) start using the bottom up approach to market analysis. For those of you who might not have heard of this, it is analyzing specific markets (in my case zip codes) in isolation. This can give insight into where fundamentals are strong, greatly reducing the number of markets you have to watch. Being numbers-driven, I believe I worked the start of a solution for which I am seeking a bit of input if you'd be so kind!

Specifically, using a quick run through with Zillow data (who is surprisingly accurate on their median values and median rents), you can ascertain median gross yields across all zip codes, rental growth, and appreciation. Setting some constraints, like gross yields between 10%-15% and elevated appreciation over the 5-year and 10-year moving annualized rates, you'll find zip codes with promising price indexes and appreciation momentum (indicating the expansion phase in the cycle) over their moving averages. 

However, I've stopped there. I wanted to ask other out of state investors what key performance indicators they evaluate when figuring out where to deploy next. If you had this list of metros, what would be the next metrics you'd want to evaluate to narrow further so you can start developing a team? 

Thanks in advance for your input!

0Reply
14 views

4 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Rental Property Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2016 · 135 posts · 145 votes
    5y

    @Andrew Eherts I think you are off to a great start! Lots of investors focus on an entire city, but I think you're smart to go into more detail by evaluating at the zip code level.

    My framework for evaluating markets comes from @Lee Ripma. It's called the DISCERN method.

    Demographic Group

    Income

    Schools

    Crime

    Expansion (Population & Income Growth)

    Rent

    Neighborhood (indicator stores along with general research on business in target area)

    She wrote a great article about it here 

    https://www.vestmap.com/discer...

    I think it covers everything you need to evaluate a good market for rentals. If I were you I would continue to narrow my list based on these characteristics. 

    I'm sure you'll be able to find a great market in no time. Good luck!

  • Andrew EhertsPro Member
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2020 · 32 posts · 23 votes
    5y

    @Tesho Akindele thanks for the great resource! I'll be sure to incorporate this into my analyses going forward.

    Just for my own curiosity's sake, I sometimes see metrics like crime to be relative to the areas around them (e.g. a higher crime rate in a general sense that is actually lower than the surrounding areas in the metro). Do you evaluate these on absolute terms in comparison to all markets or in relative terms compared to the rest of the city?

  • Rental Property Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2016 · 135 posts · 145 votes
    5y

    @Andrew Eherts That’s a great question. I definitely evaluate crime on a relative basis.

    Also in my opinion crime rates shouldn’t be too much of a deterrent, especially if the other fundamentals are strong. High crime does present a risk, but you can mitigate that risk. Working with a property manager who is familiar with the area, proper screening, and providing a quality house will help you reduce the downside risk in higher crime areas.

  • Andrew EhertsPro Member
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2020 · 32 posts · 23 votes
    5y

    @Tesho Akindele that's perfect--thank you! I was looking to dispel some of my mental blocks especially in areas with strong fundamentals. After all, there needs to be something positive about the area that outweighs the negative effects of crime if indicators signal appreciation momentum.

    I appreciate all your time you dedicated to helping me through this one. Thank you again so much!

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.