Starting Out: Thoughts On Out of State Bottom Up Market Analysis?

[Andrew Eherts]

Hi all!

I've seen many RE hedge fund managers (especially the global ones like Blackstone) start using the bottom up approach to market analysis. For those of you who might not have heard of this, it is analyzing specific markets (in my case zip codes) in isolation. This can give insight into where fundamentals are strong, greatly reducing the number of markets you have to watch. Being numbers-driven, I believe I worked the start of a solution for which I am seeking a bit of input if you'd be so kind!

Specifically, using a quick run through with Zillow data (who is surprisingly accurate on their median values and median rents), you can ascertain median gross yields across all zip codes, rental growth, and appreciation. Setting some constraints, like gross yields between 10%-15% and elevated appreciation over the 5-year and 10-year moving annualized rates, you'll find zip codes with promising price indexes and appreciation momentum (indicating the expansion phase in the cycle) over their moving averages. 

However, I've stopped there. I wanted to ask other out of state investors what key performance indicators they evaluate when figuring out where to deploy next. If you had this list of metros, what would be the next metrics you'd want to evaluate to narrow further so you can start developing a team? 

Thanks in advance for your input!

[Tesho Akindele]

@Andrew Eherts I think you are off to a great start! Lots of investors focus on an entire city, but I think you're smart to go into more detail by evaluating at the zip code level.

My framework for evaluating markets comes from @Lee Ripma. It's called the DISCERN method.

Demographic Group

Income

Schools

Crime

Expansion (Population & Income Growth)

Rent

Neighborhood (indicator stores along with general research on business in target area)

She wrote a great article about it here 

https://www.vestmap.com/discer...

I think it covers everything you need to evaluate a good market for rentals. If I were you I would continue to narrow my list based on these characteristics. 

I'm sure you'll be able to find a great market in no time. Good luck!