My plan - looking for critiques

[Tom Gillotti]

I posted this in another location but I wanted to reach a larger audience.

I joined Bigger Pockets yesterday after watching a ton of their videos on YouTube. I don't normally like to talk about what I do to the online world but I stumbled upon this sub-forum and I figured this would be as good a place as any to talk about my plan.

I'm currently in year 11 and have a contract that takes me to 2024. My goal is to completely offset my projected income by 2024 so that I will have the option to walk away if I should decide that I want to (likely will not but having options is what I want most). My projected gross annual income in 2024 is ~$130,000 (with all things added in and a few assumptions made).

How I plan to do this: (THIS IS THE PART WHERE I WANT PEOPLE TO PICK APART MY PLAN. IF THE BABY IS UGLY... CALL IT UGLY!)

2024 is 6 years away

I plan to spend the next 6-12 months learning and studying deals

I estimate that in order to replace ~$130,000 of gross annual income I will need to have that same total of net cash flow from my properties by that time (I currently only own two single family houses)

If I make the assumption that the deals that I find/buy return $500 per month of net cash flow then I will need a total of 22 properties to equal $132,000 per year (22 * $500 = $11,000/mo. * 12mos = $132,000/yr)

The $500 per unit estimate is not a per door estimate, rather a per unit estimate. So if I start with a duplex or a quad as my first property my goal would be to have a net cash flow of $500

I intend to use the "BRRRR" (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) method but have never used this strategy before so I still have a lot to learn

If I only close on two deals starting in 2019 then I will need to find another 20 deals in the remaining four years (2020-2024) that also meet this criteria

Beyond 2024 I plan to continue to scale even more over the next 3-5 years with an end goal of financial independence by ~2030 (meaning that I will not work a "day job" but will passively manage my real estate portfolio)

Biggest hurdle: I'm going to be living outside of the US for the next 3 years and will (likely) not be able to physically see any properties that I plan to purchase. This may be a recipe for trouble with buying properties that need work done but that's why I'm here. Also, I have very little capital at the moment but I anticipate being able to stash some cash away in the time that I'm researching (I have no debt other than the two houses I own; one is rented and I plan to rent the other when I move out of the US).

Some more background: I grew up in Western New York (Niagara Falls, Buffalo). Have lived in Northwest Florida and central Texas. I'm open to any market but would prefer to avoid Texas as I hate their outrageous property taxes and would prefer not to send them any more of my money. We hope to live somewhere in Florida if/when we retire (open to suggestions!).

Questions:

Where should I start?

Which market, how much to target for the first deal?

Is the $500 per unit too low?

Is the $500 per unit too high?

Should I start with the BRRRR method or find something that already cash flows/needs little work?

What are the benefits of not using the BRRRR method, and are they worth it?

What haven't I considered yet that some of you may have already dealt with?

You certainly don't have to answer all of those questions. I was just trying to brain dump everything I could think of that might be relevant and might get you thinking about some shortfalls in the plan. I look forward to your responses and any experiences you have and can share. Hopefully others will find this topic as well and learn something from it.

Thanks in advance for any and all replies!