Market stability/collapse

[Kevin Reid]

I had to table my plans a few years ago to do some small time investing, life got in the way, but now I'm thinking about it again. One thing that worries me is my current house never recovered from the recession, and we are still 30k under what we paid for it. Everyday I'm reading articles stating that another recession is coming and a housing collapse is all but a sure thing in the next year or so. Oddly I am hoping it does happen, as it will bring some rental properties down to my range since I will have some liquid cash to play with as a down payment. I can see why some say it's going to happen, because my in-laws house, basically a fancy trailer, just sold for well north of 200k in south Florida and in the height of the bubble before it was only worth 160k.

So are we headed towards a housing recession? Will we see a dip in values like before? I know you guys can't say for sure, but I'm wondering if there is a consensus on the issue.

[David Faulkner]

If your investment strategy depends on the market topping the last peak to get out and the market crashing to get in, then you should not invest yet IMO. A skilled investor knows how to buy right to insulate themselves from short term market fluctuations and can make money in a RE market going up, down, or sideways; in a market that is expensive or one that is cheap; making money on both cash flow and appreciation without speculating. Understanding how this happens would be your first move, followed by learning how to do it. So, my answer to your question is: The bad news is you can't predict it; the good news is if you buy right, it doesn't matter.