Upon further analyzation of the property and the comparables, I determined that the ARV was closer to $81,000, the rehab costs came to about $62,000 (very rough estimate), and similar properties have been appreciating at about 3% a year since 2012.

Find out how many multiples of market rents (GRM) comparable properties have sold for.  

The ARV will be the value of the new home...and you'll probably want to compare against other similar new construction, not renovated homes, to get the most accurate resale value.If you'll be subdividing, you can look at the project in various ways, but the easiest is to probably just count the ARV as the combined ARV of both houses, and then the expenses would be the combined expenses of both houses -- including the tear-down of one house and the cost of the sub-dividing.If this is a local project and you want some specific advice, don't hesitate to reach out to me...I know Howard County pretty well and have built new construction here...

No comp has a guest house- only work shops or none at all to compare."  

That they just don't get what the special/different needs are for investors when compared with the regular clients.  

So I believe it is meaningless to compare to peak prices.

@Adam Johnson, Have you had a Agent local to the market the homes are located in run comparables on the homes you are looking at purchasing?  

@CHaim K.Although I haven't personally lost money on tax liens, some things I learned about them compared to notes over the years, generally speaking:- tax liens are safer lien position (i'll give 'em that)- tax liens are slower to reward than notes, with virtually no cashflow- i found it harder to deploy large amounts of capital with tax liens vs. notes.

Haven't needed to use them in a while but found them reasonable (and I didn't really have anything to compare - I got them from a friend investor)

Check other providers in that market youre buying in and make sure the numbers all compare.