In that situation, the gamble of the combined storm factors seems less with non-bridge debt.

Which is the most accurate in determining how well a target market is doing economically as far as number of jobs and job growth is concerned?

On the other hand, an appraised value (especially if it’s recent) should be much more accurate and, if that’s what you’re referring to, I’d question why you’d believe the owner when he tells you not to go by that and that it’s actually worth $100k more. 

If that's the case, it's not really accurate to say this is only breakeven - you'd be living for free at that point - whatever you're currently paying in rent would be your positive cash flow (assuming your numbers are correct).That's great that the current owner has good insurance, but I wouldn't be quite so quick to assume a cracked slab will be covered. 

You will never get an accurate number.

I think what @John B. said is very accurate.

Here are some things you want to look out for with whoever you work with and what to avoid.Don't allow financing or a finance contingency (it can be a good indication they are selling above market value)Don't allow for your own independent property inspectionAre not realistic with their pro forma's (i.e. they don't include vacancy or maintenance projections or use unrealistically low vacancy factors)Require you to pay for any renovation upfrontSell only in cheap. low end neighborhoodsDon't accurately represent the neighborhood/property classificationDon't have consistent rehab standards for all propertiesDon't provide a scope of work for the propertyCan't provide references of repeat investorsRequire you to close before a tenant is in place

@Joe VilleneuveYou have profited the most accurate and succinct definition of a residential lease option I have ever come across.

If you remove the appraisal contingency, you are gambling - no other way to put it. 

There are a lot of great people on here but always looking for local help to get an accurate view of my particular market area.