Very, very low default rates over 50 year spans.I would take a strong credit tenant with predictable yield over lots of small tenants where some will go out over time.

It's incredibly tough to predict a market downturn, and if you buy solely for appreciation, you find yourself stuck in a bad deal in 3 years times.

If you were to BRRR a property into the bargain you could refinance just as you’re ready to move or you could sell and 1031 into possibly a larger MF that you could live in, renovate the other units and that you could then stabilize and refi etc.Try to avoid thinking of your rent as throwing your money away and instead consider that you are leveraging your capital in a more intensive way by investing outside your primary residence and choosing to let your landlord take care of Maintenance Expenses, Cap Ex, taxes and insurance so that you are able to more accurately predict your cash flows in order to pivot ready for your next move.If your NPV on the deal is greater than $18000 ( $1500 x 12)  then you haven’t paid your rent anyway right?! 

BTW I played football with a kid named Nick Varchetto at Lincoln-Way East.

Back in 2005 (after hurricane Katrina hit), I predicted a real estate collapse as well but I was mistaken by not predicting how severe it would be.

It’s very hard to predict.

This is such a strange time, and I don't think anybody predicted the real estate market to boom so quickly! 

Overall I think this will have a much larger economical impact than anyone can predict.

I personally don't agree with many of Mr Campbell's macro economic predictions (he sells newsletters) but his book gives you the basics to understand your market.

If my prediction comes true, I am prepared.