I have worked full time for 25+ years and get a steady predictable return on that time...I consider it very similar to having a bond return. 

He predicted much of what happened this year regarding bonds, gold, oil prices.  

Both Amex and Visa just called out travel spending specifically as being a standout amongst their spending categories, blowing historical figures and their predictions out of the water.Airbnb and Airdna are reporting the same. 

It is also tough to predict the future.

This approach allows for more accurate budgeting and ensures you have funds specifically set aside for both regular property upkeep and unexpected incidents, keeping your investment more financially stable and predictable.

.- Using the numbers you provided, and a rate of 10% instead of 9.3% for the HELOC (seems reasonable to plan for it to hit 10% soon, as Prime is predicted to keep rising), it seems that the new ARM loan would put you at about $500/mon higher regarding total payment, but that the end of FHA MIP would nullify most of that increase, and that it’d thus be about a wash.- If you refinance the property as your primary residence and shortly after seek a new mortgage for a new primary residence, if much less than 12 months have passed since the refi you may have trouble getting the new loan, as you’re going to make a new commitment in your refi docs regarding intended occupancy.- For some people, especially as time marches on, the need to get out of an ARM loan before adjustment is stressful.

if past performance could predict the future investing would be brain dead easy.

Some people's brains have the ability to process information so they can see and predict a clear path that will reach their target and a high percent of people can't see the forest through the trees (if I made any sense).

For example, If I am going to hire a contractor and I've never worked with any before I don't really know all the ways in which they might try to add hidden costs later and make all my price predictions irrelevant anyway. 

The challenge is predicting which factors which make up affordability are going to move where and when.