We expect rents to rise as interest rates go up and people fall out of the home buying market and instead elect to rent (is this a correct assumption?).

In the months and weeks leading up to this day I have heard a lot of remaining investors saying "nah, not gonna happen" or incorrect assumptions of being "grandfathered-in" so wouldn't affect them, of my personal favorite, the fact how the stipulation allows an investor who has done upgrades to make special request to be allowed to raise rents higher then 3%, yes, it has that "ability" through a system St Paul has said they are still "considering" the mechanism to apply for such (no approval process/application = no ability to even request such). 

I further supported these assumptions by figuring that at worst, the standard rooms would see 2x nights per week (Friday + Saturday) with once a month getting a 3-night stay. 2 nights/week x 4 weeks per month. = 8 nights + 1 = 9 nights / 30 days = 30% occupancy. 

So my assumption with a 1031 exchange is that if you have a primary residence and you sell it before your two year mark, I thought you could just roll any equity into your next primary as a 1031 to avoid capital gains, but now I’m hearing that you would be taxed for capital gains if you sell your primary residence before 2 years no matter if you roll your equity into another property or not.

I made some assumptions that didn't turn out to be true.

If you are analyzing a property (usually conservatively) to predict what you might expect in the future, use a somewhat higher vacancy rate (often 5% is recommended) so that any decisions you make for that property will be based on conservative assumptions which will increase your likelihood of success.

You can get feedback on your assumptions but you determine if it meets your criteria or not.

The majority of these renters are likely college students so my thinking is that there may be a constant influx of students looking for off-campus housing (this is an assumption though so no hard numbers to prove).Would love any thoughts/feedback on my thinking here.Thanks!

My approach is to just be extra conservative on underwriting and interest rate assumptions.

Given interest rates are rising, would it be more advantageous to try and get a loan assumption from a seller that has a better interest rate than what would be available on the market?