I live in Northern NJ and as I mentioned the barrier of entry for me in NJ is too high.

When interest rates are peak high I started my first investment and was able to cash flow !!

Rates will be in the high 11s-12.5% Range 

At this point I will have pick up about $450K in appreciation after sales costs, but that is before taxes and I am in a high bracket. 

I found a house that I think has potential - AirDNA is estimating 62K/year at 63% occupancy and $273 a night; however, I spoke with a Vacasa rep who thought those numbers were a little high.

The first people that lose their money in a downturn are those that are lending at insanely high LTVs without adequate underwriting experience including determining if the borrower's qualifications based on credit/character, capacity, and collateral.  

One of our tenants had a higher water bill due to the leak that has happened because of water heater failure.

There are some "lenders" out there who "do" incredibly high leverage or 100% financing, but be wary of these as they often try to renegotiate terms before closing/run out of capital/go bankrupt.

I'm personally looking at the 2-4 space right now as I think there should be good opportunity there to make the numbers work in high-value markets

Can you define what High IRR means to you?