So in the market that starts to decline and agents in the market retreat then the tech gap widens, if we agree that a slow constant absorption and improvement cycle takes place in the background.

I try not to contribute to that cycle!

I am in the second camp.To be perfectly honest and blunt, the biggest change over the last 24 years has been the number of new investors who tend to enter the market at or near the peak and buy from those of us who bought at the valley of the cycle.

Meanwhile the appraisal as waxed an waned over time with the RE cycle of Calif. 

It is not a full cycle of foreclosure all over again.  

You want to make sure you enter at the very bottom of the cycle right before it starts going up again.

However you used all of your money to buy properties A, B, C. if you refinance from property A and B, you will be able to get some cash to buy property (D), but property (A) and (B) will generate negative cash flow. it’s certain that appreciation of (D) will be pretty good just in a few years, following the historical pattern of the cycle.

As the market gets saturated with supply in the coming years makes sure to use realistic projections such as 10% vacancy and flat rents to 2%. 4% rent growth each year and 3% vacancy is a bubble right now and not sustainable historically over the long term with cycles. 

We try to figure out a way to pull off an 18 month lease to get off the winter cycle.  

Most of the time, homes I have been watching through the cycle end up just about where I thought they would be, but not all of them.