No, I'm not an advocate at market timing nor am I very good at it (especially with stocks) but with real estate, the cycles move slower and more predictably, and it's easier to tell when things are ridiculously over-inflated (2005-2006) or irrationally under-valued (now).

. :-)Seriously, though, my theory is that he (and many others, including me) are bored because there just aren't as many deals to be found that make any sense, due mostly to a flood of newbies into the market irrationally driving up prices trying to turn a quick buck buying something for $1 and turning around to sell it for $1.50 having never got their hands dirty or adding any intrinsic value to the property or any other parties involved.

If that happens, which I do think it will, then we may return to a climate of irrational exuberance again.

There are so many more exit strategies and OO buyers get emotionally excited about their purchase, driving your IRR at exit.

Education leads to understanding, understanding eliminates irrational fear.

It is irrational behavior to us, but the average person doesn't want to have to worry about replacing an HVAC system or reroofing a house.

Stocks liquidity allow panicked investors to sell for irrational reasons, whereas RE is less liquid.

Buffet's quip about how the market can be irrational longer than you have money comes to mind.

You might be able to find money that'll take an 8% current with catch up to high teens IRR at the end but you'll likely need to go higher given the perceived risk of a hospitality turnaround.Further, I agree with @Alina Trigub on debt and cost of capital calculation.

People can become irrational and a little crazy, especially when they are dealing with something they are emotionally invested in.