A $1/SF tiled bathroom will probably be the same as a $15/SF tiled bathroom when the appraiser peaks his head in.

If you are waiting for a 20% drop in prices in SF before re-deploying your war chest capital, I suspect you may have to wait a LONG time as I doubt it will happen in this downturn just based on previous dips and things are not nearly as crazy (yet anyway) as last peak ... my crystal ball is no clearer than yours is, though, and if I'm wrong I will be glad as mentioned.

The second one I purchased @40% price of 2005 peak, current price is close to that level but hasn't passed 2005 peak.B.

LOL  so in those areas again values will follow rents..and rents are solid when their are jobs.as the markets are now back to 06 peaks... what says they don't make new highs.. just like market peaks in 99 made new highs in 06 and market peaks in 89 made new highs in 99 or market peaks in 85 made new highs in 89.to me bubble pop is a nationwide thing like happened in 07 08.. and that i dont see happening at least the SFR realm. 

We are at the peak of the market and it's very very tough to find a good deal here.

When I look at a flip candidate I only need to peak into the bathroom for about 15 seconds... it will always be a 100% gut to studs.

I will add that even historical high appreciation markets have RE declines (typically less than 5 years from peak to new peak).

. ;-)"Don't Miss The Signs Of Another Slow-Motion Meltdown" by Tyler Durden Fri, 09/21/2018 - 14:56 That slowing down effect is important to bear in mind as we encounter the 20th anniversary of the Russia-LTCM financial crisis of September 1998 and the 10th anniversary of the Lehman-AIG financial crisis of September 2008Of course, investors recall where they were and what they did during the absolute height of the panics — Sept. 28, 1998 and Sept. 15, 2008.Most investors may not be aware that these peak panic moments had actually been playing out for over 15 months in both cases.

Look at any homebuilder, (Tol, KBH, LGIH,Etc) chart pattern and you will see almost an exact pattern when they peaked in 2005 and three years later real estate crashed.

Which the numbers are 1,100 x 12 x 10 = 132,0002. which real estate cycle are we on, like peak, near peak, downturn?