If you can purchase the types of properties you eventually want buy and hold then it might make sense to just start in with the BRRR, as your amount of capital shouldn't decrease after you refinance each place you buy. 

It's hard to see the prices going down 30% (the value i of the tax credit) by waiting until after it expires for a price decrease.

It's a shrinking population that saw rents decrease in the last year or two when the rest of the country was on fire.

Those are all recurring costs that will decrease your cash flow.3.

I can definitely see a decrease in occupancy level, not so much in ADR.

Further after years of strong appreciation, I would want to make sure my first buy cash flows so that I could absorb a decrease in market value.Best of luck, Andrew  

Instead, because the loan is amortized, the interest you pay decreases each month, while the principal portion increases each month (less interest paid as the principal decreases).So, in your calculation, you're assuming more interest is paid than would truly be the case. 

Would also want to know about well output and whether the output decreases during certain times of the year.

YOY demand is still way up but many markets are seeing supply up even more, leading to modest decreases in occupancy.

Eventually supply will ramp up and/or demand decreases.