You may be able to inflate the number based on projected IRR, but an accountant could answer better than I. 

I live in Oregon, housing market is pretty inflated over here, and the area is growing seemingly pretty quickly as I'm located near Portland.My knowledge on real estate is very limited, I'm just starting to learn about the concept of rental property investing.

Is it from gdp growth, inflation, or/and land improvements? 

The value of money gets reduced by inflation which implies the actual payoff is a little more than 6 years.I find that because we are in a high appreciation market I seem to regularly refinance. 

Not (Inflated ARV * 0.85) - Underestimated Repairs. 

I'd also rather not pay $147k off a potentially inflated appraisal for a $141k house.

Deals look a lot better if you assume 4% annual inflation in years 4 & 5, compared to if you assume 1-2%.I also like to look at cost per door compared to other recent transactions to see if they're really getting as good a deal on the property today as they say.

However, my payment is never going to go up, but over time, with inflation and the growing market in the city you invest in you'll be able to raise the rent.

What you specifically want to look for is the useful life on all large capex items covered by the HOA (roofs, walls, community areas, etc) and to ensure that the reserves held aside to replace these items adequately cover the cost of these items.You also want to be wary of poor practices by the board (embezzlement, conflicts of interest in vendors) that can inflate costs.In general, I don't like HOAs because they reduce the amount by which a house can appreciate. 

I expect your cash flow numbers a a bit inflated.