However, at this point, I just wanted to get it stabilized with tenants.There's a built-in 2.2% per year increase in rents due to inflation.

My dad was advising us to wait a bit as housing prices are pretty inflated as of now, so our target time would be in about 1-2 years, or feel out the economy as the recession seems to be right around the corner.. 

Your 2.3% interest is more like .8% due to the inflation rate (1.5%). 

Wholesalers frequently inflate ARV and play down actual rehab costs.  

I agree with @Lucas Carl you need to do a little leg work and not fully trust the inflated numbers on Airdna.I would check Vrbo and Airbnb.

Appreciation: ~4% (a little higher than inflation)Should I assume a certain vacancy rate, capital expenditure, etc?

If you’re  in an inflated market you could lose that 20 30% down in a heartbeat.  

Cap rates are what the market thinks of an asset class (hotels, MFR, office buildings) in the local environment and given a prevailing interest/inflation macro environment.

You usually don't suffer more than a quarter - half percent difference on the 30 year and it gives you maximum flexibility (and the ability to let 30 years of inflation destroy the debt).

The list price is a bit inflated due to the amount of work needing to be done.