I want to get into the commercial side but i understand I have to start with residential to work my way upGoing bigger with a 4-plex could be a smart move if you have the financial stability and confidence to handle the extra management responsibilities.

Some people overlearn because they don't have to act and that changes when your confidence increases by seeing people just like yourself making sound investments.

I think since it's 'new construction' I assume it's way more complicated, and I'm sure it comes with different challenges and factors to consider, but as long as you buy it right, have supporting new construction comps, and are confident with your cost per sf analysis, you can hit your target margin - or close to at least! 

I'm going to be honest, it is kind of scary venturing into unfamiliar territory, after 19 years in the home health industry, but being part of Bigger Pockets gives me the confidence necessary to not give up or slow down. 

The answer is a combination of knowing the numbers, your projections of those numbers in the future, and your confidence in your ability to do the analysis. 

My question is how can we confidently estimate the cycle starting over (buyers market returning)?

Surrounding yourself with experienced investors and building your network will help gain confidence in the Tempe market.Good luck!

If you want to connect with my agent there, she may have some resources for you for different money.Yes it sure is a hot market,  I have confidence I can get a nice out value and yes I do have some good tradespeople on call, but brand new to navigating lenders (do they need to be local?)

They're both good tenants, so I'm confident they've worked it out. 

I got a lot of confidence after sharing my goal and working with people who had already taken the steps I wanted to take.