That's what the 50% rule would predict. 

No one can predict market bottoms, but I can tell you that prices do not and will not continue going up forever.  

@VLADIMIR LOPEZ  It's hard to predict exactly how many calls you'll get with direct mail.

I figured we'd create a predictions thread for the stock market after I saw the Dow was below 7,000 for the first time in 12 years.So . . . anyone have any predictions?

If it doesn't pass that test, but looks good with a complex analysis, then your complex analysis is most likely making overly optimistic predictions about the future.I do agree with Dan's statements about separating inputs from outputs.

The appreciation game worked quite well during the boom years, but before that, and I would predict after that too it wasn't nearly as profitable.

Furthermore, only a Realtor who is active and 'up' on current market trends can properly factor in Pending COMPS, contact Listing Agents for information about the current contract and apply some information-based predictive pricing strategies to the ultimate estimate of ARV.It's not just simply a matter of looking on Redfin or Zillow or Realtor.com for their magic number.

We realized by taking into account the rapid appreciation of the CA market we can go above the 70% rule and still come out at 70% when the home is finished and sold at an ARV higher than we predicted.

I look at local trends and forget trying to predict anything on the marco level.

So, not enough pings to help me or you predict much.