Zero equity, underwater, etc etc.Oh, wait...I can't predict the future, but I will suggest if you can live with the "worst case" scenario, which is owning a SF home in 2017 that you picked up for a 2007 price (2007 prop tax bill, etc), then it's not crazy at all.

I understand no one can predict it and we can't sit on the sidelines forever, my hunch is we might never see this high of a market again so paying close to market value makes me anxious.It's really the least of my concerns, but moving to the new house will be a reduction in space and privacy for me.

Ask yourself: how often is the best scientific knowledge WRONG about something so supposedly predictable as: the weather?

Thank you for providing the stats, puts me more at ease with regards to a financial crash in the future and even if there is a crash in the future you can rarely predict what sector it's going to hit.

This year we're up 18% so far and everyone is predicting like 50% again.

It was built in less than 10 years ago, is already fully occupied, and has NO major repairs needed in the near future (nothing can be predicted, but the condition of this house is 1000% better than most duplexs in my price range/area ).

More on that subject, with respect to your projections, what percentage of that projected IRR is due to reversion value (which is obviously fairly tough to predict 5 years out)?

You always want to pay for actual performance, not someone's rosy predictions of the future.  

I was only thinking 'reputation risk'.As 'not a lawyer' I don't see you predicting or guaranteeing anything, I'm not sure how reporting facts and opinions would expose you.  

Does anyone care to predict.