@Victor So I think @Bob Okenwa's intuition is correct.  

Should I trust my intuition that the values are rising enough to sustain my ideal ARV?

Hi guys,I have a login to gamls the system is quite hard to use to try to find comparables and new listings (not intuitive for me).  

Here are the three books I recommend: A Random Walk Down Wall Street - Burton Malkiel The Intelligent Asset Allocator - William Bernstein The Intelligent Investor -Benjamin GrahamReal estate investors love the scrappy intuitive nature of managing rentals.

Decreasing IRR over time, assuming you're not taking anything out over time, seems counter intuitive.

@Roy Oliphant  I know its totally counter intuitive.. but most of my best deals have been when I insist that sellers retain an attorney to represent them in the transaction.. this on its face at least in our states takes any issue with unconscionable profit off the table. .. and of course a lot of what I do is development land and we can double or triple properties values in as short as 120 to 360 days with an approved plat or knowing where zoning is going to change as was the case in this one were we made a big hit.. and it could go the other way .. recession no one wants to buy dirt and we lose our ***

IMO, residential is more intuitive and thus why people start there.The reason people go commercial is scalability.

Amy, first red flag is you "heard it from a guru".Second, your intuition that this is not right is dead on.

It's not intuitive. 

So, I recently ran a background/credit check on an interested tenant. BP Smartmoves recommends to decline this tenant, but on their payment history, they've literally never missed one payment. However, their partner's...