So I could then repeat the process on next property.

If anything the new NAR rules may negatively affect buyers.

Would a recession be very likely to affect profits with such an investment?

Some contractors have insurance, some are 1 man band with no overhead, quality of work factors into cost, level of finishes.We created a calculator for our clients to use here in Chicago, specific to our renovation pricing, but even that is just a guess based on some assumptions.If you can find a quality general contractor, pay them like @Bruce Woodruff mentioned, and it will make your life so much easier...you may eat into some of your profits, but being able to rinse and repeat with someone you trust is priceless!

Every waking moment, no joke. 0 time off, no TV, no hanging out, just eat, sleep, work, on THIS, repeat. 

Then once seasoned, come back cash out refi into a lower rate and repeat if you choose to do so.

Second, inflation could affect the water price within that 12 year lease agreement.

If a law may change (as you mentioned) and you're fully invested in that state, that could affect your overall portfolio returnI don't want to sound like my strategy is better than yours, absolutely not, you trough out some good points and I respect that.I started in 2010 so have some experience too, I have invested in more than 15 states and know almost all the rules and regulation on those states, but I'm always willing to learn more and keep studying every day. 

They will have the biggest focus on setting you up for success to create a repeat client if they know what they are doing.

However, if the furniture is infested, you probably need to replace affected mattresses and couches.